MLB Playoff Odds: Remaining schedule could determine AL wild-card race

Jordan Ramsay
Last Updated: 2 hours ago

The race to secure a playoff spot in the American League looks like it will come down to the final day of the season.

While the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have all but assured themselves of a postseason berth, the rest of the AL is largely undetermined.

Despite a series-loss against the Yankees over the weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the wild-card hunt after going 13-9 in August. Toronto enters Monday 1.5 games back of Texas and Cleveland for the final AL wild-card spot. That puts the Jays in a good spot as every remaining opponent on their schedule is below .500 on the season.

Toronto can’t let off the gas, however, as they are one of seven teams fighting for the final AL wild-card spot.

Let’s dive deeper into the AL playoff picture and how the schedule could impact teams.

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If the playoffs started today

American League

No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays (first in AL East): Bye
No. 2 Chicago White Sox (first in AL Central): Bye
No. 3 Houston Astros (first in AL West) vs. No. 6 Texas Rangers
No. 4 New York Yankees vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox

The Rays and White Sox would earn byes if the playoff started today. We would also get an all-Texas matchup with the Astros facing the Rangers. The real treat would be seeing the Yankees and Red Sox renew their historic rivalry.

It’s also worth noting a couple of tiebreakers. Houston and Texas are tied with 65-66 records, but the Astros hold the tiebreaker. Cleveland is also 65-66, but in this case the Rangers hold the tiebreaker.

Just on the outside

With so many teams posting identical or similar records, the playoff landscape with continue to shift daily.

The Blue Jays are entering a crucial stretch that will see them host Kansas City and Cleveland before travelling to Seattle.

Riding a four-game win streak, the Guardians have a big opportunity to solidify their grasp on the final AL wild-card spot when they face the 52-79 Angels and 58-74 Royals over the next week.

Detroit is another team to keep an eye on. The Tigers have dropped five straight games, but only sit 3.5 games out of a wild-card spot. Back-to-back series’ against the powerhouse Rays and Dodgers could make or break Detroit’s season.