Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: Odds, Prediction
The Yanks are -135 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of 9.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
Last season, the Yankees won their first AL East title since 2022 and reached their first World Series since taking their last title in 2009, this time losing in five to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Could New York repeat in the division and for the pennant? Sure, but the Yankees didn’t have the best offseason in losing superstar Juan Soto in a bidding war to the crosstown Mets and seeing ace and 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole go down with a season-ending injury this spring.
I guarantee you that the Yanks were targeting Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next winter as the long-term Soto replacement, but of course the Jays recently kept Guerrero off the mark with an extension that should keep him in Toronto for the rest of his career.
To win the East again, New York is a -130 favourite as well as +330 AL leader. I think that’s more the rest of the American League is rather weak so far in 2025. The NL looks much stronger overall. The Yanks were 7-6 vs. Toronto in 2024 and 4-2 at Yankee Stadium. Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge hit .326 with four homers and 13 RBIs in the season series.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are on a season-long five-game losing streak after losing their final two of a home series vs. Seattle last weekend and then getting largely trucked in a three-game series in Houston to open this week, outscored a combined 15-2 to fall under .500 for the first time since the team was 1-2. The Blue Jays hit a combined .100 in the Astros series and are batting .188 in the five-game skid. Anthony Santander is hitless in his last 17 at-bats, dropping his average to .189. Andrés Giménez is batting .160 this month.
Might the seat of manager John Schneider be getting hot already? Help might be on the way Friday with outfielder Daulton Varsho potentially activated off the injured list to make his season debut. Veteran righty Jose Berrios (1-1, 5.02 ERA) is on the mound. He has been better away at 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts. Berrios has made 14 career starts vs. New York and is 4-8 with a 5.22 ERA. Aaron Judge hammers him career with a 1.346 OPS in 34 at-bats with five homers and 11 RBIs.
New York Yankees
New York also has been off since Wednesday, finishing a seven-game road trip to Tampa and Cleveland at 4-3 following Wednesday’s 5-1 victory in Ohio to avoid being swept for the first time in 2025. Aaron Judge raised his MLB-leading average to .415 by going 2-for-4 with a triple (only sixth career), RBI and run scored. He’s already a whopping -600 favourite to win yet another AL MVP. Through 25 games last year by comparison, Judge was hitting .191. The only other regular hitting much right now is first-year Yankee and former NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt at .383.
The weak link of the New York rotation is 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 6.53 ERA), and he gets the call Friday. He hasn’t gone more than 5.1 innings in any outing and allowed at least three runs in four of five. Carrasco probably gets the boot from the rotation sooner rather than later, but it depends on a few other injuries there. The Venezuelan is 5-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 59.1 career innings vs. the Blue Jays. He saw them twice last year while with Cleveland and was 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA. George Springer has seen him by far the most of any Toronto batter and is 6-for-25 with two doubles.
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