The Toronto Blue Jays head to Detroit on Friday to open a three-game set against the Tigers.  This could be a make-or-break series for Toronto, as they’ve dropped nine of their last 13 games and have fallen 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card spot.  Detroit, on the other hand, has been out of the playoff picture all year, but they were able to play spoiler and take two of three games in Toronto last weekend.

The Jays are -173 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.5.

Betting Analysis

Last weekend’s series in Toronto was the first time these teams met this season.  Detroit took two of three games, with the total going Under in each contest.  Hyun-jin Ryu started on the mound in the Blue Jays’ lone win.  Ryu threw seven shutout innings with five strikeouts.

The wheels have fallen off for Toronto over the last three weeks.  Since  splitting a double-header against the Red Sox on August 7, the Jays have dropped 10 of 17 games and fallen to fifth in the AL wild card race.  The bats have gone ice cold and the total has gone Under in six of their last seven games.

The entire season has been tough for Detroit and they come into this contest with a 3-6 straight up record over their last nine games.  It is worth noting, however, that they’re 6-1 SU in their last seven against AL East teams.  The total has gone Under in the Tigers’ last five games overall, but they’ve hit the Over in five of their last six home games.

Toronto Blue Jays

For the second start in a row, left-hander Steven Matz will face the Tigers.  Matz faced Detroit for the first time in his career in Toronto’s 5-3 loss on Sunday.  He managed six innings of one-run ball, allowing five hits and one earned run with one strikeout, but didn’t get the decision.  In his first season in Toronto, Matz is enjoying a bounce-back year.  The 30-year-old is 10-7 with a 3.94 ERA over 22 starts.  Matz has been even better in August, pitching to a 1.25 ERA in four starts and allowing just three combined earned runs over 21 2/3 total innings.  Per nine innings of work this season, Matz is striking out 8.76 batters and only walking 2.57.  After allowing 4.11 home runs per nine innings last season, Matz has dropped that number to 1.13 HR/9 in 2021.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit will counter Toronto with rookie right-hander Matt Manning.  The 23-year-old is 3-5 with a 5.91 ERA in 11 career starts.  Those numbers aren’t great, but he’s looked better lately, allowing three earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.  This will be Manning’s first start since Detroit’s 13-10 loss to the Angels on August 19.  He allowed five hits with two walks, giving up two earned runs and striking out four batters over 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision.  Manning has pitched better in his rookie year than his ERA would suggest.  The number is so high because of a few bad outings.  He’s allowed three runs or fewer in eight of 11 starts and thrown strikes on 62.8 per cent of his first pitches.  Per nine innings of work, he strikes out 4.89 batters and walks 2.87.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Blue Jays vs. Tigers?