Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: Odds, Prediction
Baltimore opened as a -115 favourite on MLB odds for the opener and a total of eight runs.
Jays vs. Orioles Betting Analysis
No matter what happens on this seven-game road trip for Toronto that started Monday in Boston, it’s a success simply because the Blue Jays announced Monday that they signed superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 14-year, $500 million extension to take the top potential free-agent bat next winter off the market.
The four-time All-Star got the third largest total contract in MLB history behind only Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets and Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million pact with the Dodgers. Toronto had lost out on Soto and Ohtani in free agency the past two winters. Had Guerrero not signed, and he said he wasn’t going to negotiate during the season, it would have been a major distraction all year in terms of whether the Jays would trade him or not. That point is now moot and the team can turn its extension focus to Bo Bichette.
When the Blue Jays split a four-game series vs. Baltimore at Rogers Centre to open the season, Bichette hammered Orioles pitching at 7-for-15 with four runs scored and two doubles. Guerrero Jr. hit .267 with a double and two RBI. Jordan Westburg led the Orioles in the series at .482 with three solo homers, while star catcher Adley Rutschman was 5-for-16 with two homers and five runs scored. All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson, arguably one of the Top 10 offensive players in the sport, missed the series with an injury but is back now.
Toronto went 2-4 at Camden Yards in 2024 and hasn’t finished with a winning record there since 2022. Note that rain is in the forecast Friday.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had a chance for a rare four-game sweep at Fenway Park on Thursday but lost the finale, 4-3 in 10 innings. It was Toronto’s second straight extra-inning game, so the bullpen is a bit taxed. Perhaps Thursday would have been different if closer Jeff Hoffman had been available, but he wasn’t. Hoffman (1-0, 1.23 ERA, three saves) should be ready if needed Friday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was to get first day of the season off Thursday but ended up entering the game in the late innings. Righty Bowden Francis (1-1, 3.18 ERA) takes the mound Friday. He has allowed exactly two earned runs in both starts this year spanning 11.1 innings with eight hits surrendered. Francis missed the Orioles in the first series and is 1-0 with a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 career innings against them spanning seven appearances and two starts. Gunnar Henderson is 2-for-5 off him with a double, and Ryan Mountcastle is 5-for-7 with two doubles and two homers.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore has been disappointing so far as it is yet to win a series, but a step back was perhaps expected this season because the rotation is so questionable after losing ace Corbin Burnes to free agency. Orioles starters are 4-8 with a 5.37 ERA compared to Toronto’s starters going 6-3 with a 2.48 ERA. The O’s at least did have Thursday off after losing their final two games at Arizona to finish that three-game series. Starting second baseman Jordan Westburg (.256, three HR, four RBI) missed Wednesday’s game with an injury but should be ready tonight. Starting outfielder Colton Cowser is on the injured list. On the mound Friday is 35-year-old Japanese rookie Tomoyuki Sugano (1-1, 2.89 ERA). His MLB debut was in Toronto on March 30, and Sugano took the loss in allowing two runs over four. He left due to cramping but was much better last time out in Kansas City. This will then be his Baltimore home debut.
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