Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: Odds, Prediction
The Astros are -140 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of 7.5 runs. Looks to be an excellent pitching matchup.
Betting Analysis
The Houston Astros are on one of the most successful runs in American League history as they have reached the playoffs eight straight seasons and at least the ALCS in seven in a row before falling in the Wild-Card Series in 2024 to Detroit. The Astros are a big-market franchise but don’t always spend like that and this offseason lost MVP-calibre players in outfielder Kyle Tucker (traded to Cubs) and third baseman Alex Bregman (signed with Red Sox) for financial reasons.
There is still plenty of talent on the roster led by future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve, although one of MLB’s all-time great second basemen is now in left field, but the postseason run may well end this October with Houston sitting fourth in the AL West. Don’t be surprised if ace lefty Framber Valdez is dealt this summer if the Astros are out of contention as Valdez is a pending free agent.
This marks Toronto’s only series this year in Houston, which visits Rogers Centre from Sept. 9-11. Houston won the 2024 series 5-2 and was 2-1 at home.
Toronto Blue Jays
Ahead of Sunday’s home loss vs. Seattle, the Blue Jays changed up the bullpen a bit by designating Jacob Barnes for assignment and putting Nick Sandlin on the 15-day injured list with a lat injury. To take those roster spots, they called up Dillon Tate and Paxton Schultz, who got into Sunday’s game and whiffed eight in 4 1/3 shutout innings, matching a major-league record for strikeouts by a reliever making his debut. Injured outfielder Daulton Varsho began a rehab assignment over the weekend. Injured reliever Erik Swanson is about to start one.
Righty Kevin Gausman (2-1) is on the mound tonight for Toronto. His 2.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP would both be career bests for a full season, and the WHIP leads all qualified MLB starting pitchers. The 34-year-old has surrendered only 15 hits with 20 strikeouts and three walks over his 25.1 innings spanning four starts – coming against four pretty good offensive teams in Atlanta, Boston, the New York Mets and Baltimore. Gausman has made seven career regular-season starts vs. Houston and is 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA. Former AL MVP Jose Altuve is 4-for-12 off him with a double and solo homer. Fellow All-Star Yordan Alvarez is 0-for-10 vs. Gausman with seven Ks.
Houston Astros
Minor disadvantage for the Astros in that they had to play Sunday night, losing 3-2 at home against the Padres, but they didn’t have to travel after so not a huge deal. The team did use a fair amount of its bullpen but not closer Josh Hader. If Houston holds the lead in the ninth inning, it’s probably over with Hader waiting as the sometimes unhittable southpaw is 1-0 with six saves, a 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. Hader vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with the game on the line would be fun to watch with Baby Vlad 1-for-1 career off him.
The Astros start hard-throwing righty Hunter Brown (2-1, 1.50 ERA) on the mound Monday. It’s always about control for Brown. If he has some, then he’s among the most dominant pitchers around. Brown enters with back-to-back efforts of six innings pitched with no runs allowed and just six total hits. He has gone exactly six in all four outings. Brown is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts vs. the Blue Jays. Andres Gimenez is 2-for-3 off him with a homer and Anthony Santander 3-for-9 with a double.
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