MLB
Jordan Ramsay
March 12, 2026

2026 World Baseball Classic Quarterfinal Odds, Prediction: Canada vs. USA

It’s a North American battle in the 2026 World Baseball Classic as Canada advances to the knockout stage for the first time ever.

And what is Canada’s reward for winning Group A? A matchup in Houston against a stacked American team filled will MLB stars on Friday night at 8 p.m. ET.

Will Canada continue their Cinderella story, or will the United States book their spot in the semi’s in Miami?

Canada is a +575 underdog on the WBC odds, while the United States enter as -900 favourites.

Canada vs. USA WBC Betting Odds

Canada finished first in Group A with a 3-1 record that included victories over Colombia, Puerto Rico and Cuba. This is the second straight win-or-go-home game for Team Canada, so they’ll look to build off that experience and embrace the underdog role on Friday night.

Because of an upset loss against Italy in the group stage, Team USA barely squeaked into the knockout round, finishing second in Group B with a 3-1 record. The United States appears to be taking the WBC more serious in recent years, winning the tournament in 2017 and finishing runner-up in 2023.

The updated WBC futures board lists USA as a +135 favourite to win the tournament entering the quarterfinals. Canada is a distant +3500, the second-longest odds, ahead of only South Korea at +5000.

If you want a little bit of revisionist history, Canada entered the tournament at +300 to win Group A. That means a $50 bet would have returned $150 in profit. Not a bad return. If you want a redo and you’re all aboard the Canadian bandwagon, a $10 bet at +3500 to win the tournament returns $350 in profit.

Canada

Canada’s biggest strength in the group stage was pitching. Strong starts from Michael Soroka, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Balazovic and Cal Quantrill were major factors in Canada posting a 1.50 ERA, the second-best mark in the tournament. The bullpen which includes the likes of Brock Dykxhoorn, Noah Skirrow, Logan Allen and James Paxton has also been crucial, allowing just three earned runs over 21.1 innings.

Canada’s offence has been middling with a .244 batting average and only two home runs. Owen Caissie and Abraham Toro have led the way, combining for 14 hits, six doubles, both of Canada’s home runs 10 of the team’s 21 RBIs. If Canada wants to survive this game, they’ll need more from major leaguers Josh Naylor and Tyler O’Neill.

USA

A shocking 8-6 loss to Italy shouldn’t overshadow how good this American team is, captained by Yankees superstar Aaron Judge. And Judge will have some extra motivation to not let a repeat of the Italy game happen after he went 0-for-4. Judge and Pete Crow-Armstrong lead the team with two home runs each, while Roman Anthony has a team-high six hits.

USA’s pitching has been been high-risk, high-reward, posting a 3.50 ERA, which ranks 10th in the tournament. The plan is to turn over the rotation in the quarters, with Logan Webb and Paul Skenes scheduled for the next two starts, should they advance to the semis. The Americans have been aggressive and lead the tournaments in strikeouts, walks-allowed and WHIP. However, they’ve also gambled and been burned as they’ve given up the most home runs in the tournament.

Just keep in mind, Italy is proof Team USA can’t overlook Canada.