2025 MLB Odds: Do the Toronto Blue Jays stack up better against the Mariners or Tigers?
After the Toronto Blue Jays eliminated the New York Yankees in Game 4 of the ALDS, the attention now turns to the championship series.
The Jays will meet the winner of the Mariners-Tigers series, with the deciding Game 5 scheduled for Friday night.
So, who does Toronto stack up better against? Let’s get into it.
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Seattle Mariners
The Blue Jays went 4-2 against Seattle in the regular season, outscoring the Mariners 32-24. However, all six games were in the first five weeks of the season, including a three-game sweep in Seattle from May 9-11.
The Mariners finished the regular season with an AL West-leading 90-74 record, winning the division for the first time since 2001.
Cal Raleigh had a historic season, with the 28-year-old switch-hitting catcher leading the majors with 60 home runs to go along with 125 RBIs and a .247 batting average.
If Big Dumper wins AL MVP, he would be the first catcher to win MVP since San Francsico’s Buster Posey in 2012.
Statistically, the Mariners have become a better team since they last faced Toronto, improving their .531 winning percentage in the first half of the season (51-45) to .591 (39-27) down the stretch after picking up Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline.
Seattle’s bullpen is very capable of out-duelling Toronto’s, with All Star Andreas Munoz (1.73 ERA), Matt Brash (2.47 ERA) Eduard Bazardo (2.52 ERA) and Gabe Speier (2.61 ERA).
However, starter Bryan Woo was held off the ALDS roster because of a pectoral injury. If he doesn’t return for the ALCS it’s a huge blow to the Mariners as he’s been their best pitcher all season.
Woo hasn’t pitched in a live game since Sept. 19, finishing the regular season with a 2.94 ERA in 186 2/3 innings. He pitched a simulated game on Oct. 2, but there’s still no clarity on his status for the ALCS.
Detroit Tigers
Toronto went 4-3 against Detroit in the regular season, outscoring the Tigers 35-26. Detroit had the best record in the American League for most of the year before an epic collapse helped the Blue Jays overtake them in the standings.
The Tigers posted an 87-75 record, finishing second in the AL Central. They blew an almost insurmountable 15.5-game lead, letting Cleveland surpass them in the division.
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who will likely win again this year, is a force on the mound. However, he’s scheduled to pitch Game 5 of the ALDS on Friday, so he’ll only be lined up to face the Blue Jays twice in the event of a seven-game series.
Detroit would likely start the ALCS with Casey Mize (3.87 ERA) and Jack Flaherty (4.64 ERA).
Outside of Skubal, however, the Tigers’ pitching staff is a more favourable matchup for Toronto as their bullpen is much weaker than Seattle’s.
Verdict
Regardless of who the Jays face, it will be a tough test. Bad teams don’t make the championship series and that’s certainly the case this year.
As much as Toronto would like to exorcise the demons that saw them get swept by Seattle in the wild-card series a few years ago, Detroit is probably a better match up for success.
The Tigers won’t have Skubal for the start of the ALCS, so there’s opportunity to take an early series lead at home.
MLB odds
The Blue Jays currently have the second-best odds to win the World Series at +325, trailing only the reigning champion Dodgers (+115). Toronto is also a -125 favourite to win the American League.
The favoured exact World Series result is L.A. beating the Blue Jays at +280, but if you’re a proud Canadian you can flip that and get Toronto to beat the Dodgers in the World Series at +525.
