PGA Shinnecock Hills Predictions: Who Will Win the US Open?

Payton Matthews
Last Updated: June 17, 2026

The third major championship of the golf season arrives on Thursday, and it’s usually the toughest test of the four with Shinnecock Hills in New York hosting the U.S. Open for the sixth time. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler eyes the career Grand Slam and is the clear betting favourite per usual on the golf odds.

It’s the second month in a row that an American golfer looks to complete the career sweep of the four majors, but it’s much more realistic this time with Scheffler than it was in May’s PGA Championship with Jordan Spieth, who hasn’t won anywhere on Tour in years and didn’t contend at the PGA.

Notably, Phil Mickelson is also only the U.S. Open shy of the Grand Slam but has six runner-up finishes. But Lefty has barely played with LIV golf this year due to personal issues and will miss the U.S. Open for a second straight year. Thus, his Slam chances are finished at age 55. Mickelson, Scheffler and Sam Snead are the only players in history to win three legs of the Slam without the U.S. Open.

Extremely tough Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, located in Southampton, N.Y., is a par 70 at 7,440 yards and originally opened way back in 1891. It is an American gem and how tough is it? The last major championship overall where no players finished under par was the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock when American Brooks Koepka won at 1-over-par 281.

The average score to par that year was plus-4.65, toughest of any U.S. Open venue in that span. That average score was also the fifth-worst ever at a U.S. Open with Shinnecock in 1986 sitting fourth at plus-4.67. Will Koepka, a five-time major winner overall, be able to win here again? That’s up in the air after he from the final round of the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday in Toronto with a hand injury. Koepka is +3500 this week. Bud Cauley won the Canadian Open for his first PGA Tour victory and got him into this field, and he’s +10000.

This might well be the last U.S. Open staged with LIV golfers with that Tour in serious jeopardy of folding any day now. There are 13 of those players in New York. Northern Ireland’s Graeme McDowell came through qualifying and makes his first major championship start in six years but is +100000.

The defending champion is American JJ Spaun, who finished last year 1-under 297 at another incredibly tough course, Oakmont in Pennsylvania, for his first major title. Spaun sealed it with a memorable 65-foot birdie putt at the final hole to become the only player to finish under par for the week and two up on Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre. Spaun is +5000 to repeat this week and won in April in Texas. I kept it simple last year with an American winner at -140.

The last repeat winner of the U.S. Open was Koepka at Shinnecock eight years ago. If it’s tied after 72 holes, there is a two-hole aggregate playoff and we still haven’t seen one in this tournament, somewhat amazingly, since Tiger Woods’ epic 19-hole Monday win over Rocco Mediate in 2008 in San Diego.

U.S. Open Golf Odds

Scottie Scheffler is +600 as he chases history and while those odds are still crazily low, they aren’t nearly as bad as some regular Tour events he has played this year. Scheffler turns 30 on Sunday, so what a present the career Slam would be. He won his first start of 2026 but not since – several close calls. He has finished T7 or better in four of the past five U.S. Opens and didn’t play in the 2018 one at Shinnecock.

Rory McIlroy (+1200) could make a major statement for PGA Tour Player of the Year should he add the U.S. Open crown to his repeat at the Masters in April. Only seven golfers have ever pulled that double in the same year. McIlroy was 22 when he won the 2011 U.S. Open in Maryland.

Spain’s Jon Rahm (+1500) and Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000) round out the favourites. Fitzpatrick has three wins this year and also won the 2022 U.S. Open in Massachusetts for his only major title. He was a runner-up Sunday at the Canadian Open. Fleetwood was T11 on Sunday in Toronto and eyes his first major. In 2018 at Shinnecock, he shot a final-round 63 and finished second to Koepka.

Players from 11 different countries have won the U.S. Open but not from Canada. Last year at Oakmont, Nick Taylor was the top finisher at T23, while Taylor Pendrith was T38 and, Mackenzie Hughes T50. Corey Conners withdrew during the tournament. Conners is +15000 this week with Taylor at +17500, Sudarshan Yellamaraju +17500 and Ben Silverman +100000.