Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.: Boxing Odds, Prediction
Jake Paul is -600 favourite to win the scheduled 10-round fight, with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. at +450 on the boxing odds and a draw +1600.
Paul vs. Chavez Jr. Boxing Odds
I’ll just be honest in that personally I have zero interest in any Jake Paul boxing match or really any of these former influencers getting into the ring. But I respect the work Paul has put in, and he legitimately hopes to become a boxing world champion eventually.
And he’s incredibly popular as Paul’s last fight against former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson was an amazing success back on Nov. 16, 2024, as a reported 108 million fans streamed it via Netflix, then a record for a sporting event for the streamer. In fact, the site was so busy that night that it had major technical difficulties. In addition, there were more than 72,000 fans in attendance at AT&T Stadium outside Dallas to witness it.
It was still a ridiculous exhibition, though, with Paul more than 30 years younger and featuring just eight two-minute rounds. The judges scored the fight 80-72, 79-73 and 79-73 for Paul, who closed about a -200 favourite. He controlled the fight, out-landing Tyson 78-18. Paul threw 278 punches to only 97 for the aged Tyson. There wasn’t much action.
That improved Paul, now 28, to 11-1 in his boxing career but ended a streak of three straight wins by KO or TKO. Paul’s lone loss came as a slight favourite in February 2023 to Tommy Fury. Paul stands 6-foot-1 and has a reach of 76 inches.
Saturday’s fight will be contested at a weight limit of 200 pounds with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., 39, as a former WBC middleweight champion and the son of the legendary Julio Cesar Chavez, a former multi-division boxing champion and Hall of Famer. Chavez will be the second former world champion Paul has faced after Tyson.
But Chavez (54-6-1, 34 KOs) hasn’t held a major world title since 2012 when he lost the WBC belt to Sergio Martinez by unanimous decision. After starting his career with a 46-0-1 mark, the Mexican has gone 8-6. There is one notable common opponent as Chavez lost to UFC legend Anderson Silva in June 2021 by split decision, while Paul beat Silva by unanimous decision in October 2022.
Chavez last fought as a -250 favourite against former UFC fighter Uriah Hall in June 2024 (on a Paul undercard vs. Mike Perry) and won by unanimous decision. Chavez stands 6-foot and has a reach of 73 inches. Three straight of his bouts have gone to the judges (he’s 2-1 in those) and that this goes the full 10 rounds is -150 with no at +110.
The overall favoured method of victory is Paul by decision at -118, followed by KO/TKO at +160. Chavez by KO/TKO is +800 and via points is +1100.
This fight is going up right against the main event of Saturday night’s UFC 317 card from Las Vegas featuring a lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. But this was somewhat by design as Jake Paul and Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions, which is co-promoting this fight, are basically sworn enemies of UFC CEO Dana White.
