Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor Odds, Betting Props

On the night of Saturday, Aug. 26, from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, one of the most interesting fights in history will take place – or something farcical along the lines of Thunderlips vs. Rocky Balboa in the movie “Rocky III” – as legendary boxer Floyd Mayweather takes on UFC superstar Conor McGregor. It could set all sorts of betting records, and McGregor is now just +300 with Mayweather at -400. Here’s a look at some of Sports Interaction’s props on the Mayweather vs. McGregor bout.

Method Of Victory Odds

Common sense tells us this should be a one-sided fight. McGregor has as many professional boxing matches as you, I and all the writers and editors at Sports Interaction combined do (that I know of). Mayweather is an all-time great at 49-0. No boxer in history ever reached 50-0. So that mark is likely part of the reason that Mayweather is putting his reputation on the line. That and the potential $300 million (U.S.) that “Money” could rake in.

Mayweather by KO, TKO or disqualification is the -112 favourite for method of victory. If he were fighting an actual boxer, the result by decision or technical decision (+211) would be favoured. Mayweather has 26 knockout wins in his career, but he’s a defensive genius and wins largely by avoiding the other guy and counter-punching. He hasn’t won by KO since 2011 vs. Victor Ortiz. All his fights since have gone the distance.

McGregor must know he’s outclassed as a boxer and could likely only wins by puncher’s chance – i.e. knockout. That he wins by KO/TKO/DQ is +328 with a decision at +1700. UFC fights can only last a maximum of five rounds. This one is scheduled for 12.

It would be a shock simply to see McGregor knock Mayweather down once. Amazingly, Mayweather has officially been knocked down just once in his career: May 26, 2001, against Carlos Hernandez on a left hook to the head. Even then it wasn’t a clean knockout, but Mayweather was stunned and touched the canvas with his hand. That Mayweather is knocked down or out is +350. McGregor is -175. Neither is: +150. Both are at least once: +650. The over/under for total knockdowns is 1.5, with the over at +137 and the under a -189 favorite.

That either fighter wins inside the first minute is yes-only at +613. Fight fans paying top dollar in person or on pay-per-view would revolt. The over/under PPV total is set at 5 million, which would shatter all records. The over is a -250 favourite.

Fight Specials

Could there be a rematch in 2018 regardless of result? No is -833 with yes at +443. If Mayweather wins in a lopsided fight, there will be no public appetite for a rematch whatsoever and thus no money to be made. At 50-0, Mayweather likely retires for good even though that’s tough for boxers to do. Mayweather’s advisor Leonard Ellerbe has said this is a “one-time thing.” But then this being boxing, added: “You never know what might happen next.”

Should McGregor win thanks to a lucky punch, Mayweather surely will demand a rematch and get it. McGregor will never earn the type of money or mainstream media hype in the UFC that he is/would against Mayweather. Could these two fight an MMA rematch? It stretches the imagination to see Mayweather agreeing to that. He would be the huge underdog. That it happens is +900 with no at -5000.

That McGregor kicks Mayweather during the fight is +599 and no is -1429. Should McGregor try any MMA moves, he’s going to lose millions upon millions of dollars in a lawsuit for breach of contract. Low blows, on the other hand, are common in boxing. That either fighter is warned for one is +141 and no -196. A second low blow could lead to a points deduction and a third to a disqualification.

One way a fight of any kind can end potentially outside the boxer’s control is if his corner throws in the towel because the fighter is taking such a beating. If you saw “Rocky IV,” Rocky was about to throw in the towel when Apollo Creed was being beaten to a pulp by Ivan Drago. Creed pleaded with Rocky not to – and Creed was killed in the ring. It should be noted that a referee could decline to stop the fight even if a towel is thrown, but that would be very unusual. That either corner throws in the towel on Aug. 26 is +379 with no at -714.

Mayweather vs. McGregor Predictions

Most of these specials are long shots for a reason. Mayweather will win by a decision with zero knockdowns. The low blow prop is worth a roll of the dice. No rematch in 2018.