2026 Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds, Prediction: Recent history says tails never fails

Decisions are made everyday by the flip of a coin and it’s no different in the Super Bowl.

One of the most popular props bets in the Super Bowl is the coin toss. It’s easy to see why. Will it be heads or tails? It’s as simply as that.

As you would expect, coin toss odds are 50/50. But, is the coin toss truly a 50/50 possibility? Recent data actually supports the case ‘tails never fails’ may actually be pretty accurate.

Let’s dive into the data and see if we can find a Super Bowl coin toss edge.

2026 Super Bowl coin toss odds

As expected with a 50/50 result, the coin toss odds are set at an identical -102 for both heads and tails. Seattle and New England also carry identical -102 odds to win the coin toss.

The Super Bowl home/away teams alternate between the AFC and NFC each year and this year’s call goes to the Seahawks as the “away” team, although the game will ironically be played at a stadium they are quite familiar with, Levi’s Stadium, home of NFC West rival San Francisco.

Seattle won the toss the last two times they were in the Super Bowl, but split the game results. The Patriots lost the toss but won the game in their last Super Bowl appearance, although they did the reverse the year prior.

Recent Super Bowl coin toss results

Let’s get into the nitty-gritty with some data. I’ll go back a little over a decade when Seattle was in back-to-back Super Bowls. In that 12-year span, tails has come up eight times, including four of the last five times either of these teams has been in the Super Bowl.

I also find it significant that the winner of the coin toss actually goes on to lose the game most of the time over the last dozen years. Kansas City won the coin toss and the game for Super Bowl 57 and 58, but that streak was snapped last year by the Eagles. Overall, nine of the last 12 coin toss winners have lost the game, including a streak of eight straight years between Super Bowls 49-56.

Super Bowl coin toss history

No one has ever mistaken me for a math expert, but even I know over a large stretch of time, the coin toss results will fall close to 50/50. Tails currently leads the all-time results 31-28, with both sides’ longest streak sitting at four years.

The coin toss result was tails in four consecutive years three different times: 1998-2001, 2003-2006 and 2014-2017. Heads had one stretch of winning four consecutive years from 1990 to 1993.

2026 Super Bowl coin toss prediction

Last year I predicted heads for the second year in a row and the result was tails. That broke a streak of three straight correct predictions for me, so I’m ready to get back in the win column.

The coin toss has alternated between heads and tails since 2022 and I like that to continue this year. Maybe I’m stubborn picking heads three years in a row, but I look more to the overall edge tails has right now. Sooner or later that gap has to start closing.