UFC 316 Odds, Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Joe Pyfer got back into the win column with an impressive first-round KO victory over Gatineau, Quebec native Marc-André Barriault in his most recent outing last June at UFC 303 and has now claimed victory in six of his past seven fights.

It has been a somewhat rougher road for Kelvin Gastelum, who is coming off a three-round unanimous decision win over Daniel Rodriguez in his last octagon appearance at UFC Riyadh in June 2024 but has failed to record consecutive wins during a dismal 3-6 run since 2018.

With these two fighters seemingly headed in opposite directions, Pyfer leads the way as a big -400 favourite on the UFC 316 odds while Gastelum trails as a distant +310. The odds of this fight going a full tree rounds are listed at -105.

Kelvin Gastelum UFC 316 Odds

With just one octagon appearance in the past 18 months, rust must be a concern as Kelvin Gastelum makes his return to action. Complicating matters for the 33-year-old are the struggles with weight he has faced while trying to make the move to the welterweight division. Indeed, his recent date with Rodriguez was originally scheduled as a welterweight fight until Gastelum’s inability to make weight.

However, optimistic UFC betting fans may view Gastelum’s long layoff as a positive considering his lack of success while maintaining a busy schedule between 2019 and 2023. In any case, Gastelum’s hopes for victory on Saturday will likely be determined by his ability land significant strikes and establishing control following level changes. Gastelum put on a clinic in his win over Rodriguez, landing 112 strikes and recording four takedowns.

Joe Pyfer UFC 316 Odds

Originally scheduled to face Gastelum in March at UFC Mexico City, Pyfer was forced to pull out after falling ill just hours before the fight. Sporting a reputation as a workhorse after making his first five octagon appearances over a period of just 17 months, Pyfer is now returning to action in the wake of the longest layoff of his career.

“Bodybagz” has impressed in his brief UFC career, winning five of six since making his appearance at Dana White’s Contender Series 47 including a trio of first-round finishes that has helped earn him three performance bonuses. The 28-year-old American sports plenty of striking power and has absorbed an average of just 10.2 strikes per fight in his five UFC wins. Pyfer also demonstrated his ability to withstand plenty of punishment in his lone UFC defeat, a five-round unanimous decision loss to Jack Hermansson at UFC Vegas 86.

UFC 316 Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer

While Pyfer enjoys both youth and fearsome striking power, Gastelum enters this contest with plenty of experience. He will need it to stay out of range of Pyfer’s strikes and be successful at takedowns if he is to have any chance to claiming victory in a fight likely to go the distance.

Prediction: Pyfer by decision/technical decision (+150)