NCAAF
Payton Matthews
September 12, 2023

Tennessee vs. Florida Point Spread: NCAAF Week 3 Odds, Prediction

Saturday is the last time that Tennessee and Florida will face off as SEC East Division rivals as the conference will do away with divisions starting in 2024.

The No. 11 Volunteers are 6.5-point road favourites on the college football odds.

Pointspread

Florida -113 +5
Tennessee -107 -5

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Some conferences already have done away with divisions, and the SEC will follow suit in 2024 when Texas and Oklahoma join the league. Back in the day, Tennessee and Florida was one of college football’s top rivalries as they used to rule the SEC East, but Georgia is now king of that division and the SEC. UT and UF will play in 2024 and still should face off most years.

Last season, No. 11 Tennessee beat No. 20 Florida 38-33 in Knoxville. Vols QB Hendon Hooker, who was squarely in the 2022 Heisman conversation before getting hurt later in the season, threw for 340 yards and two scores and rushed for 112 yards and a TD. He’s now a backup QB with the Detroit Lions. Florida’s Anthony Richardson threw for 453 yards and two scores and rushed for two more TDs. He’s now the starting QB of the Indianapolis Colts.

Florida leads the all-time series 31-21 (16-5 in Gainesville) and has won 16 of the past 18. The Gators haven’t lost at home to the Vols since 2003.

Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols had one of the most electric offences in college football last year but things haven’t gone quite as smoothly yet this season with UT having lost starting QB Hendon Hooker to the NFL. Joe Milton has thrown for 429 yards and four scores in easy wins over Virginia and Austin Peay, but that unit isn’t humming. Tailback Jaylen Wright has had at least 100 yards rushing in each of the first two games. Under Coach Josh Heupel (since 2021), the Vols have averaged 41.6 points per game and 492.5 yards of total offence per game, which is sixth and seventh in the FBS, respectively, during that span. Tennessee has scored at least one TD in 24 of its past 25 quarters. The defence was a problem at times in 2022 but has been great in the early going, ranking first nationally in total sacks (11) and tackles for loss per game (12.5).

Florida Gators

In his first year with Florida, Billy Napier became the first coach in program history to lose to Florida’s four primary rivals (Florida State, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee) in the same season. A defeat Saturday would mark five rivalry losses in a row, something the Gators haven’t experienced since losing 10 straight from 1977-80. This season under first-year defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, Florida ranks first in the Power Five and third in the FBS in total defence at 191.0 yards allowed per game. The Gators have surrendered just 150 total yards across their last six quarters. Offensively, starting centre Kingsley Eguakun is expected to make his season debut off an ankle injury. Eguakun started every game from 2021-22 and was regarded as one of the Gators’ top returning players. Florida has totaled 300-plus yards of offence against Tennessee in eight straight games and in 13 of the last 14 meetings. The Gators also have rushed for 100-plus yards in 16 of the last 17 matchups. Florida has scored at least 31 points in each of the last five meetings vs. UT and a minimum of 26 points in eight in a row.