2020 NFL Draft QB Odds: Predictions for Burrow, Tua, Herbert
It’s considered a good if not great class of quarterback in the 2020 NFL Draft. Could there be as many as five taken in Round 1 on Thursday?
Joe Burrow a Big Favourite to go No. 1
While LSU quarterback Joe Burrow went from NFL afterthought to sure-fire No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft following his record-setting Heisman Trophy season in 2019, he wouldn’t be the first pick in this year’s draft if Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence were eligible. NFL scouts are lusting after Lawrence, considered by many the best pro QB prospect since Andrew Luck. However, Lawrence will be back with the Tigers next season and look to win a Heisman Trophy himself – he and Ohio State’s Justin Fields (who also will be a very high pick in 2021) are the current favourites at Sports Interaction.
It’s almost unprecedented how much Burrow improved his stock from one year to the next. Remember, he couldn’t even win the starting job at Ohio State before transferring to LSU. Burrow was just OK in 2018 in Baton Rouge but then blew up last year in setting numerous school, SEC and NCAA records.
It’s such a sure thing that Burrow will go No. 1 to the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night that there’s simply a yes-only prop at Sports Interaction that he DOESN’T go No. 1: +1700. Burrow is +5800 to be the second quarterback off the board and +2300 to be the No. 2 overall pick.
Tua Tagovailoa is an NFL Draft Question Mark
Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa is the -140 favourite to be the second quarterback drafted with Oregon’s Justin Herbert at -120. Herbert might have gone No. 1 last year if he had declared, and Tua was considered the consensus top pick in this year’s draft when the 2019 college football season kicked off, but the Hawaiian continued to be plagued by injuries.
Purely on talent, he has the highest ceiling in the class and has been called a potential left-handed Drew Brees. Tua is a +610 second-favourite to be picked No. 2 overall; the Washington Redskins currently sit there but aren’t taking him. They would have to trade that pick for the prop to hit.
Be careful about reading all these draft rumours because many of them are smokescreens, but there is more and more chatter that Tua could slide in the draft and not go No. 5 overall to the Miami Dolphins as once was expected. That NFL team doctors can’t examine Tua due to the coronavirus is surely playing a role in these rumours.
The Dolphins could opt for Herbert, or simply take another position at No. 5 and grab a quarterback later in Round 1. Miami does remain the +150 leader to be the team that picks Tua. The Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6 overall also are in the market for a young quarterback. Herbert is given an over/under draft position of No. 6, with the under a -135 favourite. The Bolts are +175 to be the team that picks Tua.
The over/under for total quarterbacks taken in Round 1 is 4.5, with the under a -505 favourite. Burrow, Tua and Herbert will be chosen. So will Utah State’s Jordan Love. He is given an over/under draft position of 20.5, with both options at -120. There aren’t many scouts who have ranked Love over Tagovailoa or Herbert. Love actually took a step back with the Aggies last year, leading the nation with 17 interceptions.
The chance of 4.5 QBs going over in Round 1 rests on either Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts or Washington’s Jacob Eason. On the which round is Hurts drafted prop, the second is the -155 favourite and Hurts has an O/U draft position of 60.5 (under -140 favourite). Eason has an O/U 53.5 (both -120).
NFL Draft Quarterback Predictions
Take Tua to go No. 5 to Dolphins in the NFL Draft odds, and Herbert to go No. 6 to Chargers. Under 4.5 first-round QBs, under 60.5 on Hurts and under on Eason. Both go Round 2. The Colts and Steelers both would make sense in that round.
