Mercury vs. Aces Game 3 Preview: WNBA Finals Prediction
For the first time in league history, the Finals are a best-of-seven format, and the Mercury return to Footprint Center knowing they must win Game 3 to stay alive.
The Aces, chasing their third championship in four years, have shown their experience and depth early in the series, while the Mercury’s “Big Three” of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper have carried the scoring load.
Mercury vs. Aces Game 3 Odds and Betting Trends
The Aces have now won five of six meetings with the Mercury this season, including two tight road victories (84–81 and 86–83). Despite that dominance, oddsmakers have installed Phoenix as slight home favourites, suggesting a bounce-back performance is due. The total on the WNBA Final odds board has gone Over this number in four of their last five head-to-head games, with both teams ranking in the top five in offensive efficiency during the postseason.
Bettors should also note that Phoenix has covered the spread in each of their last home playoff games so far, which came against the defending champion Liberty and the Finals favourite Lynx.
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix’s Game 3 task is clear: get production beyond its stars. In both Games 1 and 2, Thomas, Sabally and Copper combined for 55 points each night, but the bench managed just 16 and 8 points, respectively. That imbalance has proven costly, especially with the Mercury bench being outscored 41–16 in the opener. Expect veteran sharpshooter Sami Whitcomb to be a key X-factor: she averaged over nine points per game during the regular season while shooting 36% from deep, but she’s hit just 2-of-10 threes so far in the Finals.
The Mercury also need to regain control of the glass after being outrebounded by nine boards in Game 2, while maintaining the improved ball security that saw them win the turnover battle in Game 1. A more balanced effort and better bench scoring could help Phoenix turn the tide.
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces continue to flex their championship pedigree, powered by A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young, who combined for 60 points on 25-of-45 shooting in Game 2. Chelsea Gray was once again the orchestrator, nearly posting a triple-double, and the Aces’ bench depth has been a major difference-maker. Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans combined for 39 bench points in the opener, allowing Las Vegas to survive early deficits and sustain momentum. The Aces have been outstanding on the road all season, but have historically shown slight dips offensively away from Michelob Ultra Arena.
Maintaining composure against a desperate Mercury team and hostile Phoenix crowd will be key if the Aces want to move one win away from a sweep and another title.
WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Mercury vs. Aces?
At first glance, backing the Aces as underdogs after two straight wins might seem like an easy play, but this is the perfect spot for a Mercury response. Phoenix has been better at home and defensively all year, and its stars have shown the ability to carry this team when their backs are against the wall. The difference tonight could come from the supporting cast: look for Whitcomb to break out from beyond the arc and help spread the floor for Thomas and Sabally.
Phoenix finally delivers a full 40-minute performance and defends home court to stay alive in the series.
Best Bet: Mercury -3.5 (-120)
Final Score Prediction: Mercury 87, Aces 81
Lean: Over 163.5 (-115)
