Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury WNBA Preview and Prediction

These two teams could not be headed in more opposite directions. The Sky sit at the bottom of the standings with just two wins in 11 August tries, while Phoenix is battling for top playoff positioning with one of the best records in the league. 

The Mercury put their perfect 3-0 record against Chicago this season on the line, including a pair of lopsided blowouts since the Sky lost veteran point guard Courtney Vandersloot. With Phoenix’s stars healthy and rolling, this feels like a test of how long Chicago can hang around.

Phoenix is a sizeable 12.5-point favourite to win on the WNBA odds, with the total set at 163.5.

Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury WNBA Odds and Betting Trends

The Mercury opened as double-digit favourites (-12.5) with a total at 163.5, and both numbers tell the story. Phoenix has covered easily in their last two wins over Chicago, outscoring them by a combined 37 points. 

Chicago owns the worst defensive rating in the league and a brutal -10.3 point differential, while Phoenix ranks in the top three in both pace and defence. Only one of the three head-to-head matchups went Under, and with Alyssa Thomas orchestrating and Satou Sabally back on the floor, the Over looks like the stronger play.

Chicago Sky

Chicago’s only calling card is rebounding, where second-year standouts Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso form a bruising front-court. Reese leads the WNBA at 12.4 boards per game, Cardoso is in the top five, and veteran Elizabeth Williams chips in solid work. But against Phoenix, even that edge disappears. The Mercury’s disciplined defensive rebounding philosophy has limited the Sky’s young duo to shocking single-digit rebound totals in past meetings. 

Offensively, the Sky are a mess without Vandersloot, recording 52 turnovers across three games against Phoenix. Unless Reese and Cardoso absolutely dominate, Chicago doesn’t have the perimeter firepower to keep pace. And even then, Williams and Cardoso combined for 27 points and 25 rebounds last time out, and the Sky still lost by 16. The way Thomas and Kahleah Copper can dominate and torch the Sky’s backcourt is a scary thought. 

Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix is loaded. The “big three” of Thomas, Sabally, and Copper are all averaging over 15 points per game and feasting on Chicago’s shaky defence. Thomas is in full maestro mode, notching 10+ assists in four of her last five games. Add in Dewanna Bonner, who’s been a perfect fit since arriving from Indiana, and Phoenix has too many options for the Sky to chase.

The Mercury are also elite at limiting second-chance points and controlling the paint, negating Chicago’s lone strength. Combine that with their quick pace and long-range shooting ability (a severe weakness for the Sky defence), and it’s clear why Phoenix has taken care of business so far against Chicago. 

WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury?

Chicago simply doesn’t have the backcourt depth or shooting to keep up with Phoenix’s firepower. The Mercury can score into the 90s with ease, and their defence is tailor-made to shut down the Sky’s offensive rebounding advantage. 

Expect Alyssa Thomas to carve up the Sky defence with plenty of dimes, Sabally and Copper to fill it up, and the Mercury bench to pile on late. My best bet is Phoenix -12.5 and Over 173.5, with a final score of Mercury 94, Sky 79. Winners of four of their last five, Phoenix should keep rolling tonight.