U.S. Open Women’s Singles Final Preview: Can Anisimova Upset Sabalenka?

Amanda Anisimova already got a measure of redemption by beating Iga Swiatek in the U.S. Open quarterfinals, having previously lost to Swiatek 6-0, 6-0 two months earlier in the Wimbledon final. Now she has another chance to play in a Grand Slam final and win her first slam title, facing Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday in New York. Sabalenka will be seeking some revenge of her own, as she fell to none other than Anisimova in the Wimbledon semis. Let’s break down the U.S. Open women’s singles final odds and discuss the best bets to make. 

U.S. Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova best bet – Anisimova +3.5 games (-135) 

Why is Sabalenka favoured by a considerable margin on Saturday? It’s because she is a three-time winner – including the defending champion of the U.S. Open – and is ranked No. 1 in the world. Anisimova is ranked No. 9 in the world and has never captured a major title.

The truth is, however, that this showdown should be priced far more evenly. Anisimova is an eye-popping 6-3 all-time in the head-to-head series following her win over Sabalenka in the Wimbledon semifinals. The American has won two of their three previous hard-court encounters. She is 3-2 against Sabalenka at Grand Slams, so clearly she more often than not doesn’t get overwhelmed by the big stage.

There is no denying that Anisimova did not handle the Wimbledon final well, but there isn’t any reason to think that will happen again. By getting revenge on Swiatek so soon afterward, Anisimova proved that she has the mentality to overcome just about anything. The underdog has a good chance to win this match outright.

U.S. Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova prediction – Over 21.5 games (-140) 

This projects to be another long, competitive match – just like the two semifinals on Thursday night. Sabalenka came back to beat Jessica Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 before Anisimova toppled Naomi Osaka 6-7(4), 7-6(3), 6-3. Their recent head-to-head battle at the All-England Club produced 30 games, with Anisimova prevailing 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Four of their last seven meetings have required a decisive third set.

Moreover, these are two of the biggest servers on the WTA Tour and they are playing in relatively quick conditions at Flushing Meadows. It won’t be easy to break serve. In other words, even a straight-set match could result in a decent number of games since at least one tiebreaker is likely.

U.S. Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova pick – Over 9.5 aces (-120)

This play obviously correlates nicely with Over 21.5 games, as a longer match gives each woman an opportunity to hit more aces. Although there were a modest eight aces in their Wimbledon semi, they combined for 14 aces against each other at the French Open. Keep in mind that clay is the surface on which it is most difficult to hit aces, so 14 at Roland Garros is an especially huge number – even more so since that was a straight-set match.

It should also be noted that both players get aced an above-average number of times. Over the past 52 weeks, Sabalenka is getting aced on 4.4 percent of her return points; Anisimova comes in at 4.9 percent in that department (WTA Tour average among the top 50 players in the world is 4.1).