The Importance of Beating Ernests

After two huge wins for Canadian Tennis on Thursday night, Milos Raonic and Vasek Pospisil are both favoured to make the Semi-Finals. Al Dannity is as stunned as everyone else but no so much that he can’t make calls on both their matches today.

What planet is this and is it ok if I stay here forever? Milos Raonic, who I spent most of yesterday’s column deriding his 2013 season, beat Juan Martin Del Potro 7-5 -6-4. Vasek Pospisil, who I said had a great week but no hope of progressing, beat Tomas Berdych 7-5 2-6 7-6. What on earth is happening?

Let’s start with Pospisil. Normally a wild card hopes for a win to make the most of their chance at free rankings points. If they get a second win, as Pospisil did on Wednesday against my predictions, they can go home knowing they are in for a wonderful present when the new rankings arrive on Monday morning. Pospisil? Oh man he wasn’t happy with that. This young man, who has learned so much by playing doubles with Daniel Nestor, has rode his wild card all the way to the quarter finals of a Masters Series event. Want to know how important that is? Raonic has never gone beyond this stage at this type of tournament and he’s ranked 58 places about Pospisil. This is a big deal. Now we enter the most intriguing match of Vasek Pospisil’s career.

Having won two matches that he was supposed to lose, he’s suddenly the -127 favourite against Nikolay Davydenko. The Russian has been nothing but disappointing since his seemingly breakthrough win at the Tour Finals in 2009. Four years ago, Davydenko looked poised to finally push for a slam title. Instead he’s only won two events since and his best win this year was back in January. He hasn’t beaten an opponent in the top 50 since the French Open. This is a player on a slide. For all that, I just can’t back Pospisil. For one thing, a nation expects. On a more practical level, there’s only so long an upset streak can run and I think Pospisil’s will end sooner rather than later.

Raonic is paired with unpredictable Latvian Ernests Gulbis. Unsurprisingly the Canadian is -156 favourite but that isn’t the reason I’m picking him. Gulbis has, across his career, found a way to follow up a huge win with a massive let-down. For all his talent, he is completely devoid of consistency. Gulbis remains a fan favourite because when he’s good there are only a handful of players more exciting to watch. Ernests, I love you but I don’t like you today. Raonic to win.