Mboko vs. Osaka: 2025 National Bank Open Women’s Final Odds, Predictions

Mboko faces former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka in the final from the Omnium Banque Nationale in Montreal. Osaka is -170 on the tennis odds and Mboko +145.

Victoria Mboko

As we noted previewing Wednesday’s semifinal match between 18-year-old Canadian wild-card entrant Victoria Mboko and No. 9 Elena Rybakina, there will be new women’s champion of the National Bank Open regardless. No one from Canada was given much of shot when it opened, but here we are as with one more upset, Mboko can join Faye Urban (1969) and Bianca Andreescu (2019) as the only Canadians to win their national tournament in the open era.

Mboko was a sizable underdog against the former U.S. Open champion Rybakina, whose best surface is hardcourts. And she rolled in the first set 6-1, but Mboko stunningly rallied 7-5 and 7-6 (4) to advance. Mboko, who moved to the Toronto area with her family as young child from North Carolina, saved a match point in the third set and broke Rybakina twice to force the tiebreaker.

Despite predicting Mboko to lose, we still cashed that match because we recommended Rybakina over 12.5 games won as we suspected that Mboko might win a set. She has now beaten No. 23 seed Sofia Kenin, No. 1 Coco Gauff and No. 9 Rybakina in this tournament. Mboko has yet to win a WTA Tour title and this is her first final.

Currently ranked 85th in the world, she will move up to at least 34^th in Monday’s new rankings. I have two major concerns: At 2 hours, 46 minutes, the match Wednesday was the longest of Mboko’s short tour career. And she had 11 double faults. To win the first set tonight, she’s +120. The over-under for total games in the match is 21.5.

Naomi Osaka

The 27-year-old Osaka, from Japan, is one of the most popular and well-paid tennis players in the world — and by that we mean she makes a lot of money off the court in her native country. Among the most in the world among female athletes. At the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, she became the first tennis player to light the Olympic cauldron during the opening ceremony.

Osaka is a former world No. 1 who has won two Australian Opens (2019, ’21) and two U.S. Opens (2018, ’20) – those happen to be played on hardcourts like the National Bank Open. Osaka has taken two breaks from tennis in her career, one in 2021 for mental health reasons and again in 2023 when she was pregnant.

At 5-foot-11, Osaka has one of the most powerful first serves on Tour. She has beaten four seeded players in this event, most recently No. 16 Clara Tauson by scores of 6-2, 7-6 (9-7) in the quarters. This is Osaka’s best performance at a WTA 1000-level event since 2022. She is 21-11 on the year without a singles title but has seven WTA career titles, last that 2021 Aussie Open.

Osaka and Mboko have never met. Mboko is only the third wild card to reach the final of this event after Monica Seles (1995) and Simona Halep (2015). Seles won the title but Halep didn’t, and we think Mboko will be gassed after her very long match in the semis.