2025 National Bank Open Tennis Odds, Predictions: Victoria Mboko vs. Elena Rybakina

We’re down to the semifinals at the National Bank Open on Wednesday, with Elena Rybakina a -210 favourite on the tennis odds to beat Victoria Mboko, who is a +160 underdog.

Victoria Mboko

We are guaranteed a new women’s champion at the National Bank Open as two-time defending champ Jessica Pegula of the USA, seeded third this year, was ousted in the third round by unseeded Anastasija Sevastova. None of the remaining players in the women’s draw have won this tournament.

The last Canadian female champion was Bianca Andreescu, and 18-year-old Victoria Mboko is the only one left standing this year entering the semis. The youngest of four tennis-playing siblings was born in Charlotte, but her family moved to greater Toronto area when she was young. Mboko actually made her WTA Tour main-draw debut at this event in 2022 at age 15.

She got a wild-card entry into this year’s tournament as the No. 85 player in the world and has only dropped one set. Mboko stunningly knocked off No. 1 seed and tournament favourite Coco Gauff in a straight-set stunner in the fourth round. Mboko then ousted unseeded Jessica Bouzas Maneiro of Spain in straight sets in the quarters to reach her first career WTA semifinal.

The teenager is the first Canadian female to reach this semifinal round Andreescu’s title run in 2019 and the youngest Canadian player in the Open Era to reach the semifinals. Mboko is the youngest woman to reach the semifinals regardless of country since Belinda Bencic’s 2015 win in Toronto. Coached by former Wimbledon finalist Nathalie Tauziat, Mboko is only the fourth Canadian woman to reach the semifinals at a Tier 1/WTA 1000 event, joining Helen Kelesi, now-retired Eugenie Bouchard and Andreescu.

On the year, the right-handed Mboko has won 64.4 per cent of her first-serve points but only 39.7 per cent of second serves as she has well more double faults than aces. That’s youth. Overall, she has won 67.2 per cent of service games in 2025. Mboko will climb to at least No. 55 in the new WTA rankings next week and certainly higher with an upset here.

Elena Rybakina

The 26-year-old Rybakina, from Kazakhstan, is ranked No. 12 in the world but No. 9 in this tournament, and she also has lost just one set but only played four matches with an automatic bye into the second round. In addition, Rybakina didn’t have to play a full quarterfinal match as she was up 6-1, 2-1 on No. 24 Marta Kostyuk, who then retired with a wrist injury.

Wednesday will mark Rybakina’s 10th WTA 1000-level semifinal career and her fifth overall semifinal appearance of the season — the third most on Tour behind world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (nine) and No. 2 Iga Swiatek (seven). Rybakina is 33-14 in singles in 2025 with one title, coming at a French Open clay-court warmup in May.

Her preferred surface is hardcourt, and her only Grand Slam title was on the hardcourts of the U.S. Open in 2022. Rybakina also was a runner-up at the hardcourt Australian Open in 2023. She has reached a career high of No. 3 in singles previously and also plays right-handed.

The only previous WTA match between these two was the second round of the hardcourt Citi Open in Washington, D.C., last month when Rybakina won 6-3, 7-5 in the second round.