Mexico vs. Poland: 2022 World Cup Odds and Predictions

Daniel Coyle
November 20, 2022

Mexico earned a berth in an eight straight World Cup with an impressive qualifying run, but have failed to tally consecutive victories during a middling 4-3-4 since punching their ticket to Qatar 2022. Poland makes their second straight appearance in the World Cup after bouncing Sweden from contention with a 2-0 win in the second round of qualifying, and have earned at least one victory in each of their past seven tournament appearances.

Mexico has emerged as a razor-thin +162 favourite in Tuesday’s Group C opener, while Poland closely trails as a +171 bet. The odds of this match finishing in a draw are pegged at +209, while the odds of the total going UNDER 2.5 are listed at a lofty -185.

Mexico vs. Poland Betting Analysis

Mexico +152
Draw +203
Poland +192

Tuesday morning’s matchup at Stadium 974 marks the first meeting between these sides since Mexico tallied a 1-0 victory in a 2017 friendly, and their first clash at the World Cup since 1978. Poland are winless in three dates with Mexico since posting a lopsided 3-1 win over El Tri in the group stage at the 1978 World Cup. That contest also marked the last time these two sides combined to score two goals in a match, with just five total goals getting scored in three friendly clashes since. Both these squads sit well off the pace on the World Cup championship futures, with Mexico listed at a lengthy +8990, just ahead of Poland at +9070.

Mexico

After being bounced in the Round of 16 from each of the past seven editions of the World Cup, Mexico aims to take the next step this time around. However, they have plenty of work to do to overcome some recent uneven results. El Tri wrapped up their pre-tourney friendly schedule on Wednesday with a 2-1 loss to Sweden, and have now fallen to defeat in three of their past five games across all competitions. While the Mexicans enjoy a reputation as a stingy defensive squad, they have managed to surrender five goals over their past three outings, a run highlighted by a shocking second-half meltdown in a 3-2 loss to Colombia on September 27. However, they have enjoyed some offensive outbursts while averaging two goals per match over their past four contests, with Alexis Vega contributing a goal in each of the past three. Vega also notched two goals during qualifying, and sports attractive +300 odds to find the back of the net on Tuesday. The club also received good news this week, with reports indicating that veteran striker Raul Jimenez will be fit to return to action after being sidelined by a groin injury since August.

Poland

Poland return to the World Cup looking to recapture the magic that propelled them to the semi-finals in both the 1974 and 1982 editions of the tournament. However, success has eluded them since, with the Eagles bowing out in the group stage in each of their past three appearances. Poland enters this year’s tournament on a winning note after closing out their pre-tournament schedule with 1-0 victories over both Wales and Chile, but were badly outclassed while getting outscored by a wide 11-3 margin during a four-match slide in nations League action over the summer. Complicating matters for the Polish defence is the loss of Bartlomiej Dragowski to a broken ankle that forced him to withdraw from the squad. Fortunately for this squad, his likely replacement Wojciech Szczęsny has been steady if not brilliant in recent appearances with the national team, allowing just three total goals over his past four appearances. Up front, the focus will be on Robert Lewandowski. The 34-year-old has potted 13 goals in 14 matches during his debut campaign at Barcelona. He also averaged a goal per match in nine World Cup qualifying appearances, and is a clear frontrunner to open the scoring on Tuesday, sporting +420 odds.