World Cup Odds Preview Group D: Group of Death May Bounce England
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Frank Doyle
Group D is largely viewed as a three-horse race between Italy, Uruguay and England, while Costa Rica is World Cup 2014‘s biggest darkhorse.
Italy +132
Uruguay +178
England+228
Costa Rica +6100
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Italy:
World Cup Outright Odds: +2000
Qualification/World Cup History: Four-time World Cup winner, went undefeated in 10 qualifying matches.
Player to Watch: Mario Balotelli – Whatever happens, you won’t be able to ignore Balotelli even if you wanted to. He’s a dynamic striker who’s known for his flash and lavish lifestyle as much as his spectacular goals. If he keeps the drama to a minimum and concentrates on his game, he should find his name on the score sheet a couple of times.
Team Forecast:
Italy looks to bounce back after failing to advance past the group stage in 2006. The Azzurri will play a possession-based style with veteran Andrea Pirlo orchestrating from midfield. The 35-year-old can still dictate the pace of a game but it will be interesting to see how he copes with the heat in Brazil. Italy is balanced from one end of the pitch to the other with familiar names like Daniele De Rossi and keeper Gianluigi Buffon also playing important roles. Italy’s one weakness will likely be at the back, but if Buffon is on his game, the Azzurri will be a tough squad to beat in the group stage.
Uruguay:
World Cup Outright Odds: +2600
Qualification/World Cup History: Two-time World Cup winners.
Player to Watch: Luis Suarez – Suarez is one of the most dynamic scorers on the planet when he’s healthy, which is the main concern for Uruguay. He’s back training following a kneed injury but some wonder how fit he’ll be during the tournament.
Team Forecast:
Even if Suarez is hobbled, Uruguay is a scary group on the attack. Edinson Cavani and Diego Forlan join Suarez up front to complete a tremendous striking threesome and this will likely be the most exciting team in Group D by a wide margin. Uruguay opens the tournament against Costa Rica and shouldn’t have any trouble there, but will need Suarez fit after that for matchups against England on June 19. As great as Uruguay is attacking, it’s almost as bad defending. Uruguay conceded 25 goals in qualifying.
England:
World Cup Outright Odds: +3300
Qualification/ World Cup History: Won the World Cup in 1966. Went through qualifying but England needed a 2-0 win over Poland in its final game to punch its ticket to Brazil.
Player to Watch: Wayne Rooney – If England has a chance at advancing Rooney must be good, very good. More often than not he’s been a disappointment on the World Cup stage but this year he’ll be counted on to provide stability and offence to a team that’s in the middle of a transition phase.
Team Forecast:
The good news for England is that the team’s supporters aren’t going into this tournament with unreasonable expectations. The Three Lions will try to inject some youth into the team with eight players aged 24 or younger making the squad. With Roy Hodgson at the helm, England will defend to the death, looking only to push forward on clear scoring opportunities. It might not be pretty, but it’s the best tactical strategy for this team. England has been good on set pieces recently and will need to make the most of those chances to have much success in Brazil. Daniel Sturridge is a man to watch. If he can find a chemistry playing ahead of Wayne Rooney, England will be much more likely to advance.
Costa Rica:
World Cup Outright Odds: +14580, making Costa Rica the biggest underdog in the tournament.
Qualification/World Cup History: Costa Rica jumped to as high as No. 17 in the FIFA rankings after advancing to the round of 16 in the 1990 World Cup. Since then it’s mostly been downhill.
Player to Watch: Bryan Ruiz – The captain will be asked to anchor the midfield and chip in on the attack. He’s the glue that holds this team together.
Team Forecast:
To be clear, if Costa Rica can pick up a point in the opening round, that will be a major accomplishment. Los Ticos suffered a major blow when striker Alvaro Saborio went down with a broken foot and don’t have much depth to overcome the loss. He scored eight times during the qualification stages. Without Saborio, there will be even more pressure on Keylor Navas, the team’s fantastic keeper. If Costa Rica gets a result in any of its three games, you might as well pencil Navas’ name in for man of the match.
Group D Prediction:
This group could easily come down to goal differential with Italy, Uruguay and England all pushing to get into the knockout stage. England has to work some youth into the lineup at some point, but could struggle to mesh on the pitch. The Three Lions don’t have a game-breaker like Italy and Uruguay either. It may go down to the wire, but Costa Rica and England will likely be left behind as Italy and Uruguay advance.