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Edgar Chaput
UEFA Champions League Round of 16: 2nd Leg Part 1 Odds, Predictions
The high-stakes drama of Champions League football returns at last. This time the games will determine whose campaign for continental glory moves to the next stage, and whose dreams are put off until next year if not further down the road.
An important reminder for those accustomed to the rules of engagement of yesteryear: the away goal rule has not been in effect since last season. In other words, any clubs that scored more away goals on aggregate do NOT automatically win the tie should the two teams be at level terms at the end of the return leg. Those games would extend to extra time and if need be, penalty kicks.
As always, check out our UEFA Champions League odds page for all the action. With that out of the way, let’s get down to business.
Tuesday, March 7: Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund
The return leg of this tie has the potential for some high-quality football and drama. The scoresheet reads a 1-0 Dortmund advantage. This is true, and the Bundesliga side has more than enough ammunition and quality to do away with their London opponents. That said, the first leg was an example of the home side escaping with a slim one-goal lead more than anything else.
Graham Potter’s men thoroughly outplayed Edin Terzic’s unit, coming close plenty of times to net at least one marker. Chelsea was the side that appeared more threatening on the night. Fate and good goalkeeping kept the Blues at bay, and Adeyeme’s 63rd-minute score was the difference maker.
Speaking of looking good, the Blues are coming into the contest after a solid 1-0 victory over Leads in domestic competition this past weekend (Wesley Fofana, 53rd). Seeing Chelsea play creative, flowing football is a rare sight these days. While the final score suggested a tight game, the truth is the men from Stanford Bridge were fully deserving of the spoils. Were it not for Joao Felix rattling a one-timer off the crossbar, the score line could have been much worse. The German side was 2-1 winners over fellow Champions League rival Leipzig (they play next week), but there were some nervous moments in the second half after the visitors cut the lead from 2-0 down. Marco Reus scored from the spot and Emre Can’s shot benefited from a deflection and allowed Dortmund to keep pace in the domestic league with Bayern Munich.
Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Dortmund (Dortmund goes through 2-1 on aggregate)
Tuesday, March 7: Benfica vs Club Brugge
Arguably the first leg contest that received the least amount of attention, the Portuguese giants walked off the pitch 2-0 winners, thus putting them in a prime position to take care of business Tuesday.
To be fair, the result and the way the contest played out mirrored what most pundits expected. With all due respect to Brugge, few believed they would challenge their Portuguese opposite in such a way as to really upset the tie. It wasn’t for lack of opportunities from the Belgians to take an early lead, but the visitors had more bite to their play and knew how to take advantage of the chances fate awarded them. Benfica fired no less than 14 shots toward the Belgian goal, with four on target. Joao Mario eventually gave his side the lead from the spot in the 51st minute before David Neres really gave Brugge something to think about in the 88th to make it 2-0.
Prediction: Benfica 1-0 Brugge (Benfica goes through 3-0 on aggregate)
Wednesday, March 8: Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain
The tie that had the most football fans salivating before the first leg was played has taken a bitter twist. For one, the Bavarians left Parc Des Princes with a 1-0 advantage that flew with them back to Germany. Right off the bat, PSG will have their work cut out for them at the Allianz Arena.
Number two, news broke on Monday that one of the Parisian club’s offensive leaders, Neymar, will have season-ending ankle surgery. The Brazilian injured himself in domestic action versus Lille last month in a wild game that ended 4-3 in favour of the defending champs. Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé are available, along with plenty of excellent supporting players, but one gets the sinking feeling they’ll miss Neymar’s quality. PSG’s most recent test was another high-flying affair over the weekend, this time against Nantes. The Parisians took a quick 2-0 lead, only to see Nantes display moxie and level the terms. Ultimately, PSG were too much, with Danilo Pereira scoring on a beautiful header in the 60th minute and Mbappé finishing off the visitors with a ferocious goal to make it 4-2. Bayern Munich was away to VfB Stuttgart. It proved to be a lot closer than anticipated, with Matthijs de Ligt (39th) and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (62nd) coming to the rescue in a 2-1 victory.
Prediction: Bayern 2-1 PSG (Bayern progresses 3-1 on aggregate)
Wednesday, March 8: Tottenham Hotspur vs AC Milan
AC Milan looks to finish off Spurs in North London on Wednesday evening. Despite the one-goal advantage, the Rossoneri will be kicking themselves for not accumulating more goals or, for that matter, at least creating more chances than they did.
The first leg started brightly for the San Siro hosts, with Stefano Pioli’s men taking matters into their own hands, displaying vim and verve and pushing Tottenham against the ropes. The opening marker, a rebound pounced on by Brahim Diaz after keeper Fraser Foster made two sensational stops, suggested this would be a simple matter. It turned out to the anything but. Some lovely footwork by Rafael Leâo didn’t amount to much, and the Milanese didn’t even muster as many shots as the visitors (nine to Spurs’ 11). Not that the Londoners did much better. Only three of their attempts forced Ciprian Tatarusanu into action, but none were especially threatening.
Both Spurs and AC Milan suffered defeats in domestic action against clubs they rightly should have beaten. Tottenham fired blanks against Wolverhampton, with Heung-min Son cannoning two shots off the woodwork before Wolves stole the momentum and downed them 1-0 for the count. Milan was at Fiorentina with an opportunity to make a push for fourth in the Serie A table but played a flat game, deserving their 2-1 loss.
Prediction: Tottenham 2-1 AC Milan (Tottenham progresses in extra-time)
