Edgar Chaput
August 14, 2023

Spain vs Sweden Prediction, Women’s World Cup Odds

Two nations who have put on quite a show at times in this tournament square off at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand in the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Both Spain and Sweden have proven their worth and then some. Despite some brief stumbles at earlier stages in this 2023 Women’s World Cup, both are fully deserving of a chance to play for a ticket to the final.

Neither side is considered to have a huge advantage. Spain is priced at +108 to Sweden’s +250 on the World Cup odds, with a draw currently set at +220.

Spain +118
Draw +200
Sweden +245

Spain vs Sweden Betting Analysis Odds

This semifinal contest is a World Cup original matchup, but that doesn’t mean the countries have never crossed paths. Tuesday is in fact the 11^th time Spain and Sweden duel on the women’s side of the beautiful game. The women from the Iberian Peninsula have never defeated their Scandinavian opponents. Moreover, they’ve fallen in seven consecutive contests.

Spain is experiencing exponential growth in the women’s game. The country didn’t even merit participation in the World Cup until 2015. That year they fell in the group stage. Four years later they made it to the Round of 16. Now they are 90 minutes away from competing for all the marbles.

Sweden’s history at this tournament is stronger. That said, the country has never lifted the coveted trophy. At best, they’ve finished third three times. The first occasion was at the inaugural edition in 1991, then in 2011, and lastly four years ago. They also participated in the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Gold medal game against Canada (played in 2021 due to the pandemic). Getting to a World Cup semifinal is nothing new for Sweden. Winning it would be.

Spain

Spain’s journey from World Cup non-participant to semi-finalist is remarkable. Eight years ago the country was practically a non-factor, yet here they are after playing some sensational football at times. The lone misstep was a 4-0 group stage hammering at the hands of Japan, who were eliminated by Spain’s upcoming opponents.

The Spaniards have scored 15 goals and counting. Jennifer Hermoso, Aitana Bonmati, and Alba Redondo account for nine of them with a trio of markers each. Much like with the men’s side, the fact that so many squad members play in the same league helps a great deal. Hermoso, Bonmati are Barça teammates along with Salma Paralluelo. There is a cohesion to the group that’s difficult to match. That served them well in the quarterfinals against the Netherlands, a 2-1 victory. An excellent match, Spain dominated for long stretches. When the Netherlands equalized in added time, Spain refused to let the momentum slip away, with Paralluelo netting a scintillating winner in the 111^th minute.

Sweden

Like with Spain, it hasn’t always been easy for Sweden at this year’s edition. South Africa gave them much more fight than they bargained for (a narrow 2-1 win) and then there was the match in the Round of 16 versus the United States. An apparently vulnerable, weakened American side, ripe for the plucking. You couldn’t tell on that day, as the U.S. thoroughly dominated the Swedes but were stung in the penalty shootout.

The unpredictable nature of the 2023 tournament continued into the quarterfinals. Japan, a team many believed would go all the way, were the ones thoroughly outplayed by Sweden, for stretches at least, despite the narrow 2-1 scoreline. Defender Amanda Ilestedt (four goals) is in a unique position to maybe win the tournament’s golden boot award, not something a player in her position generally takes home. Forward Fridolina Rolfo – two goals so far – will be very familiar with faces on the opposite side as she too plays for Barcelona in domestic action.