Spain vs. Germany: 2022 World Cup Odds and Prediction

Jordan Ramsay
November 26, 2022

It’s a crucial match for Germany at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar on Sunday as a loss to Spain would put their chances of advancing to the Round of 16 in serious doubt. Die Mannschaft is trying to put a 2-1 upset loss against Japan in their tournament opener behind them, while La Roja will look to build off a 7-0 blowout victory over Costa Rica.

Spain is the match favourite at +111 on the World Cup odds, with Germany entering as a +212 underdog and a draw sitting at +267.

Spain +125
Draw +243
Germany +196

Spain vs. Germany Betting Odds

These nations have seen plenty of each other in the past. They’ve faced off 25 times overall, with Germany earning nine wins, Spain taking eight wins and eight matches finishing in a draw. The teams met in the group stage of the 1966 World Cup in England with West Germany winning 2-1. Spain knocked out Germany 1-0 in the semi-finals of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa en route to their only World Cup trophy to date. The last time these teams met ended in a 6-0 blowout victory for Spain two years ago in UEFA Nations League play.

After one match, Spain jumped to a -387 favourite to top Group E after coming into the tournament at -120. Germany fell from the second-best odds at +113 to the second-longest at +800.

Spain

Ranked No. 7 in the world, Spain looked every bit of a top-10 team with their biggest World Cup victory ever in a 7-0 drubbing of Costa Rica. Strikes from Dani Olmo, Marco Asensio and Ferran Torres gave La Roja a 3-0 lead at the half. Torres scored again to open the second half followed by 18-year-old Gavi, who became the youngest player to score a World Cup goal since Pele in 1958. Carlos Soler scored in the 90th minute and Alvaro Morata added an extra-time strike.

Statistically it was absolute dominance for Spain against Costa Rica. La Roja outshot their opponents 17-0 overall with eight shots on target. They enjoyed an 82 per cent possession rating, the most of any team since it began being tracked in 1966. They also became the first team in World Cup history to complete over 1,000 passes in a 90-minute match.

It’s unlikely we will see any changes to Spain’s lineup against Germany.

Germany

A late collapse cost Germany in their opening World Cup match against Japan. Ilkay Gundogan’s strike gave Die Mannschaft a 1-0 lead for most of the game, but Germany ultimately let the win slip away by giving up two late goals. The 11th ranked team in the world is now at risk of failing to move past the group stage for the second straight World Cup. Pressure is mounting for the four-time tournament champions, who have now dropped two of their last nine games across all competitions.

It’s hard to completely fault Germany for the loss as they did manage to outplay Japan for most of the game. Germany had 26 attempts on net (nine on target) compared to 12 (four on target) for Japan. Die Mannschaft also finished with a 74 per cent possession rate.

Bayern Munich winger Leroy Sane missed Germany’s opening game with a knee injury and appears unlikely to play on Sunday despite returning to practice. Like Spain, Germany will likely go with the same lineup.