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Edgar Chaput
Spain vs. France: Euro 2024 Semifinal Odds, Prediction
If the quarterfinals at this summer’s European championship featured mouth-watering matchups, the semis are just as if not more alluring. Before England and the Netherlands do battle on Wednesday, neighbours France and Spain will play for their ticket to this Sunday’s final. It’s a contest between France’s current generation of world-class players versus a resurgent Spain, aiming to climb back to the mountain top.
This is as close as it gets. Our Euro 2024 odds have Spain at +165 and France at +210. A draw (extra time required) is priced at +180.
Spain vs. France Betting Odds
The history between La Roja and Les Bleus is befitting of the tight odds for this titanic game. The nations have clashed 36 times all-time, with Spain wining 16, France 13, and another seven draws.
However, the French have a commanding 4-1-1 record over Spain in European championship play. They have also won two of the past three overall meetings– although two were international friendlies.
Further good news for France, at least as far as history is concerned, is that the nation’s only semi-final defeat was way back in 1960. Since then Les Bleus have won three in a row, which ultimately led to their two titles and their one runner-up position in this competition.
Providence has smiled on Spain even more so. La Roja are 4-1 at this stage of European championships. Their lone defeat came three summers ago against Italy, making their immediate return to the final four an opportunity to do away with that painful blemish.
Spain
Sides that reach the final four always have difficult routes. Most would agree that going against Germany in the quarterfinals is no small feat, especially when they are the host nation.
The match lived up to the billing and then some. For 10-15 minutes at time, each side would exchange ball possession and scoring opportunities. One thing was certain, Spain did not fear playing against the host nation. They still finished with 48.4 per cent possession, 18 total shots and six on target. Spain displayed cleverness in their playmaking, taking full advantage of its brilliant midfield trio of Fabian Ruiz, Pedri and Rodri. Although Nico Williams did not score, he was a constant threat when Spain attacked.
Dani Olmo opened the scoring in the 51st minute thanks to an unselfish pass by Lamine Yamal that sliced through the German defence. The hosts battered for an equalizer, which nearly came at the death through Florian Wirtz (89th). As happenstance would have it, Williams’ substitute, Mikel Merino, headed the match winner (119th) right before the contest would have gone to penalties. Heartbreak for Germany, ecstasy for Spain. Make the final 2-1 in extra time.
France
As alluring as a Spain-Germany knockout stage game sounds, it still cannot hold a candle to what makes so many fans salivate: a big game between big players.
One could be forgiven for thinking that last Friday’s other quarterfinal match was not France against Portugal but somehow a one-on-one bout between Kylian Mbappe and Cristiano Ronaldo. Ironically this game was not up to the same level as Spain-Germany. It was good, just not great. Once 90 minutes struck with the score 0-0, it always felt that this would required penalties, which France won 5-3, thus putting an abrupt end to Ronaldo’s international career.
Mbappe’s facial injury seems to have limited his effectiveness in this tournament. He has a few neat moments per match, but nothing more. No lineup has provided the magic that fans expect; not when Antoine Griezmann, Ronald Kolo Muani, Marcus Thuram, N’Golo Kante, or Ousmane Dembele have started. Final scores show that the French have scored thrice at Euro 2024, which isn’t a lot. The twist is that two of those were own goals by the opposition. Didier Deschamps must get more out of this group if they are to be playing in Berlin on Sunday.
