Portugal vs. Slovenia: Euro 2024 Round of 16 Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
Here is something few probably predicted: Slovenia is undefeated through three group-stage matches at the European championship. There is, however, a caveat. They haven’t lost but nor have they won. A trio of draws were enough for the side to squeeze into the knockout stage. Portugal had its group wrapped up after two matches and expects to advance to the quarter-final.
Our Euro 2024 odds unsurprisingly have the Portuguese as favourites. They’re pegged at -275. A draw – which would require extra time and, if need be, penalties – is +360. A Slovenian upset is priced at +775.
Portugal vs. Slovenia Betting Odds
Interestingly, Portugal and Slovenia have drawn swords only once in their footballing history. That said, the match was not only quite recent – a March 2024 friendly – but resulted in a 2-0 victory for Slovenia. If there was ever a moment for Portugal to pop the Slovenian bubble, now would be it.
Cristiano Ronaldo and company, especially Pepe, have plenty of knockout stage experience at the European championships. The country has played at least one knockout round match in every edition since Ronaldo made his debut in 2004, winning it all in 2016 against host nation France. Their title defence ended swiftly at Euro 2020 when Belgium eliminated them 1-0 at this very stage.
Slovenia’s participation at Euro 2024 and presence in the elimination phase is all the more impressive given that it’s their first competition since 2000. That year they didn’t even make it out of the group stage.
Portugal
Despite losing a game in Group F, Roberto Martinez’s ensemble has looked every bit the European giant their reputation bestows them.
They entered the game versus Georgia having already dominated the group, but they still put on a decent showing, falling prey to exquisite Georgian goalkeeping and timely offence by the opposition. Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, and Francisco Conceiçao have all netted once through three games. Ronaldo hasn’t found the scoresheet but has been a menace on the attacking front and has whipped in good free kicks when given the opportunity. If there is one thing the side needs to improve, it’s the finishing. Watching their games, one gets the sense they should have scored more goals than they have, especially versus Georgia.
Slovenia
Not to take anything away from Slovenia’s accomplishment of making it this far, but their presence in the Round of 16 is bewildering.
They haven’t won a game yet, have only scored two goals, and have less than 40 per cent of ball possession in each contest. It doesn’t make for the most enthralling football, but given the odds Slovenia is facing, doing just enough to get by will satisfy their supporters. Will that work against a side like Portugal? We’ll find out soon enough. It worked against England, a game that ended in a 0-0 stalemate, with Atletico Madrid keeper Jan Oblak making key saves. Then again, given how the English have performed, was it so miraculous a result?
Forwards Benjamin Sesko and Jan Mlakar need to get going for Slovenia to have any chance of vanquishing Portugal. Either that or they survive the full 120 minutes of open play and pull off the upset in a penalty shootout.