Portugal vs. Germany Prediction: Euro 2020 Betting Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jun 18, 2021

Germany needs a win against Portugal to stay afloat in Group F, after an own-goal cost the Germans their opening round match.

After downing Hungary 3-0 in their opening match, Portugal can book their ticket to the knockout round with a win on Saturday.  It won’t be easy though, as they’re set to play Germany in Munich.  The Germans dropped their opening match 1-0 to tournament-favourite France and need to get some points from this match to avoid dropping further down the group standings.

Germany is a +128 favourite to win on the soccer odds, with Portugal at +210 and a draw at +220.

Portugal vs Germany Betting Odds

With the offensive potential on both teams, it’s a little surprising to see the Under 2.5 goals favoured at -130 and the Over at +103.  Germany moves to -164 on ‘draw no bet’, while Portugal is at +118.  Newly cemented as the European Championship’s all-time leading scorer, Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo is a +440 favourite to strike first in this game and +187 to score anytime.  The favoured exact score in the match is a 1-1 draw.

With their opening match win, Portugal is -1000 to qualify for the knockout round and +183 to win Group F (France is the Group F favourite at -167).  Germany is -167 to move past the group stage, but their loss to France has dropped them to +673 to win the group.  Both teams are expected to go far in the tournament.  Portugal is +704 to repeat as European Champions, while Germany is +1021 to win the tournament.

Portugal

Despite a 3-0 win, it actually looked like Portugal was going to need to settle for a draw in their opening match against Hungary.  It took a Raphael Guerreiro goal in the 84th minute for the defending Euro champs to finally break through.  That was followed up by two goals from Ronaldo, the first of which officially broke the all-time Euro’s goal record.  This a big opportunity for Portugal, as a win will put them through to the knockout stage.  They likely don’t want to worry about qualifying in an already difficult game against France.

Portugal has been fairly healthy.  Nuno Mendes has been dealing with what’s been described as a “slight thigh injury”, but is expected to play against Germany.  Outside of that, there’s no other injury concerns.  Look for Portugal to field the same starting XI as the Hungary game.  Manager Fernando Santos will want to rest some of the stars against France, but he can’t do that without a win against Germany, so expect Portugal to go hard for a win on Saturday.

This team has a strong history in the European Championship and they look poised to go on another deep run.  They’re currently unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions, but they’ve lost their last four fixtures against Germany.  Portugal will certainly be looking for a better result than the 4-0 loss to Germany at the 2014 World Cup, the last time these teams met.

Germany

Germany is not the same powerhouse they were when they won the 2014 World Cup, but they’re still a very good team.  An own-goal from Mats Hummels cost them the game against France, but this squad was likely always looking ahead to the Portugal game.  They won’t be able to guarantee themselves a spot in the knockout round if they lose this match, but finishing third in the pool could still be enough to qualify.  Germany struggled to create scoring opportunities against France, so it’s possible manager Joachim Low changes the starting XI.

Matthias Ginter was forced out of the France match late, after suffering a leg injury, but he is expected to be ready for the Portugal match.  We could see Leroy Sane draw into the starting XI.  Sane was the first player off the bench against France and Low may choose to swap him into the starting XI for Kai Havertz to mix up the attack.  Timo Werner and Emre Can are also potentials to drop from the starting lineup.

Germany needs a win in this game.  Four of the six third-place teams in the group stage will move on to the knockout round and the Germans would likely be in that category even if they lose on Saturday, but they don’t want to rely on other teams’ results.  They’ve made the knockout round of the European Championship for three straight tournaments and with Low stepping down as manager after this tournament, you can bet this squad wants to go on one more deep run.

Portugal vs. Germany Score Prediction

Portugal 1, Germany 1

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