Paris Saint-Germain vs. Monaco UEFA Champions League: Playoff Preview and Prediction

European teams face off in a playoff round finale as they look to qualify for the UEFA Champions League Round of 16. The classic French rivalry between Paris Saint-Germain and Monaco ensues after PSG’s comeback from two goals down in the first leg. Paris showed how a two-goal comeback was possible in the first half of the first leg, so Monaco could easily do the same.

Though this matchup finds the Parc des Princes backing last year’s champions as they look to get back in the driver’s seat with a victory (or draw at least) on Wednesday.

PSG vs. Monaco UEFA Champions League playoff round odds and betting trends

The two French teams have met countless times in all competitions, with the Parisians leading with 24 wins in total, despite losing to the Monégasque squad 1-0 in Ligue 1 back in November. PSG have won three of their last five confrontations, with three of those ending with five goals or more. If Monaco were to pull off an upset against their rivals, it would be the fifth time since 2003/04 that they progressed to the Round of 16.

PSG is walking a thin line of staying in the tournament, although they are still listed as one of the top three favourites to win it all at +700, compared to the lowest-priced team, Monaco (+30000). Paris is indeed the -370 home favourites with a one-goal lead, while Monaco enters enemy territory at +800, with a draw set for +550.

AS Monaco

Monaco are far from the top of Ligue 1, sitting in eighth place this season, although they’ve already downed the league leaders of PSG. They are out of the French Cup, and have won two of their last five games in all competitions, with just nine goals to show for. The Monégasque are +2 after 23 games played in Ligue 1. The team is also prone to getting players sent off, receiving eight red cards over the last three months, with two red cards in their last two matches against PSG alone.

For this one, Monaco will have to do without Aleksandr Golovin after being sent off in the first leg. Folarin Balogun returns as the team’s highest probable goalscorer at +300 odds after netting Monaco’s only two against the Parisian giants last week and five in Ligue 1 this season. Mika Biereth (three goals in the French Cup) follows up at +330 odds to score, with top domestic goalscorer for the team, Ansu Fati, set to score at +330.

Paris Saint-Germain

PSG have had a slightly uncharacteristic season this year after being unrivalled treble winners, but they still have a chance to win both Ligue 1 and the Champions League. They are as strong as ever personnel-wise, but their form has gone in and out, dropping unnecessary points in both Ligue 1, with a recent 3-1 loss to Rennes, and Champions League, with a loss to Sporting and a draw to Newcastle. Part of their issue is their long list of ongoing injuries, with players like Ousmane Dembele, Marquinhos, Fabian Ruiz, Kang-In Lee, Quentin Ndjantou, Lucas Hernandez, and Joao Neves all suffering from a spectrum of injuries.

Goncalo Romas finds his way as the match’s most-likely goalscorer at -120 odds, with the leading team goalscorer in Ligue 1, Bradley Barcola, coming in close at +100. Desire Doue (+105) is always a threat, particularly so against Monaco after netting two in the last match, with four so far in the Champions League, followed by the talented Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (+105) on the wing, with three to his name in the tournament.

UEFA Champions League playoff round prediction: Who will win PSG vs. Monaco?

PSG has the one-goal lead, and whether it lasts long enough or not shouldn’t matter, because the team has scored 12 goals in their last four consecutive home games, with their last loss at the Parc des Princes in January.

Even without Dembele, Ruiz, Neves, and possibly Kvaratskhelia, PSG has a multitude of players who can step up. Defensive shape will be the main focus in waiting for counterattacking opportunities, but with Monaco’s only threat really being Balogun and Ansu Fati, it’s likely the Monégasque squad will have trouble hitting the back of the net.

A 2-0 PSG victory could be in the works, but whatever the scoreline, the 2025 Champions will inevitably move on to the Round of 16 after this one.