Japan vs. Spain: 2022 World Cup Odds and Prediction

Jordan Ramsay
November 30, 2022

Japan and Spain will close out the group stage of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar against each other when they meet on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET. Both teams are looking to solidify their spot in the round of 16.

Spain currently leads the Group E standings, but a 1-1 draw against Germany on Sunday means they will need to pick up at least one point against Japan to guarantee they move on. Japan sits second in Group E, but a 1-0 loss against Costa Rica gives Germany an opportunity to leapfrog Japan in the standings if they don’t beat Spain.

Spain is a -284 favourite to win on the World Cup odds, while Japan is +661 and a draw is +401.

Spain -269
Draw +400
Japan +609

Japan vs. Spain Betting Odds

There’s not much to take away from the head-to-head history between these teams and Japan as Spain have only met once and it was over 20 years ago. Spain won the match 1-0 in April 2001.

Japan is +250 to open the scoring on Thursday with Daizen Maeda favoured to get the goal at +1300. The Blue Samurai are +713 to finish atop Group E, but they’ll need all three points against Spain to do it.

After eight goals through two World Cup matches, Spain sits at -303 to open the scoring against Japan with Alvaro Morata favoured to get the goal at +420. La Roja currently sit as a -2000 favourite to win Group E.

Japan

After an upset win over Germany to open their tournament, Japan did themselves no favours with a loss against Costa Rica. With Germany likely winning their final group stage match against Costa Rica, Japan needs a win against Spain to keep the Germans from leapfrogging them in the standings and guarantee they move on. Heading into the final group stage match, Spain leads Group E with four points, Japan is second with three, Costa Rica has three and Germany has one. That essentially means Group E is completely wide open and a win on Thursday is a must for all four teams.

The Blue Samurai, ranked 24th in the world, are dealing with a few injuries. Defenders Takehiro Tomiyasu and Hiroki Sakai are both doubtful with hamstring injuries, while midfielder Wataru Endo has missed training because of a knee injury. If Endo isn’t good to go on Thursday, Ao Tanaka or Gaku Shibasaki will likely take his place in the starting XI.

Spain

After a 7-0 blowout victory over Costa Rica to open the tournament, Spain’s 1-1 draw against Germany in their second match could come back to haunt them. It’s still possible for Spain to win Group E with a loss, though that is unlikely given Costa Rica would have to beat Germany in that scenario. The simplest way to look at it is, Spain needs one point to guarantee they qualify for the round of 16, while a win guarantees they also win the group.

In their second match of the tournament, La Roja, the seventh ranked team in the world, ran into a tough German team that was humbled and motivated by an upset loss in their first tournament match. Morato scored his second goal of the tournament, but Spain couldn’t hold the lead and had to settle for a draw.

Spain’s 18-year-old midfielder, Gavi, has missed training with a minor injury and his status for Thursday is unknown. Team captain Sergio Busquets, who is one booking away from a suspension, is set to be rested against Japan.