Japan vs. Croatia: 2022 World Cup Odds and Prediction

Jordan Ramsay
December 4, 2022

This is the second straight round of 16 appearance for Japan who finished group play as surprising Group E winners thanks to wins over European powerhouses Germany and Spain, although they dropped a decision to a weaker Costa Rica team. Croatia punched their to the knockout stage with a win over Canada and draws against both Belgium and Morocco.

Croatia is a -112 favourite to win on the World Cup odds, while Japan is a +270 underdog.

Croatia -107
Draw +248
Japan +277

Japan vs. Croatia Betting Analysis

These teams have met three previous times, splitting the all-time head-to-head record with a win, loss and draw each. The last two meetings were World Cup group stage clashes. Croatia won 1-0 at the 1998 World Cup, while the teams played to a 0-0 draw at the 2006 tournament.

Japan sits at +146 to open the scoring on Monday, although it’s worth noting they didn’t strike first in any of their three group stage matches. Ayase Ueda is +900 to get the match’s first goal and he is a +330 anytime scorer. As of Sunday night, Japan is tied with Switzerland at +6090 as the ninth longest odds among remaining teams to win the World Cup.

Croatia is a -141 favourite to score first on Monday, but like their opponents, they failed to strike first in any of their group stage matches. Marko Livaja is the match favourite to score first at +620. Livaja is a +215 anytime scorer. Croatia has the eighth longest World Cup odds at +3235.

Check out all the World Cup betting options at Sports Interaction.

Japan

For the second time in this World Cup, Japan shocked soccer fans with two second-half goals in their group stage finale to upset another European powerhouse. Ritsu Doan once again scored off the bench in the 48th minute and Ao Tanaka added the eventual winning strike just three minutes later. Doan also scored off the bench in the upset win over Germany and he leads the team with two goals.

The Samurai Blue have now knocked off the 2010 and 2014 World Cup champions in the same tournament, but their 1-0 group stage loss against Costa Rica is likely why sports books have them as solid underdogs. The most concerning stat is Japan’s dismal 32.3 per cent possession time average through three games. The subs will need to come up big once again if this team can reach the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time ever.

Defender Ko Itakura picked up his second yellow card of the tournament against Spain, so he will be suspended on Monday. Takehiro Tomiyasu is expected to take Itakura’s spot in the starting XI. Winger Takefusa Kubo’s status is in doubt due to muscular discomfort.

Croatia

Four days after a dominant 4-1 victory over Canada, Croatia closed out group stage play with a 0-0 draw against Belgium to advance to the knockout stage for a second straight World Cup. The 2018 runners-up have been blanked in two of three matches, but exploded offensively against Canada. Andrej Kramaric scored twice against Canada, while Livaja and Lovro Majer each had one goal.

This Croatian team has been defensively sound, allowing just one goal in the tournament, but the concern lies at the other end of the pitch. Croatia has failed to score in as many games at this World Cup as they have in their previous 13 matches. Still, this is a team that is unbeaten in their last nine matches across all competitions and their experience reaching the 2018 World Cup final should prove valuable.

Defender Josip Stanisic will sit out Monday’s match with a muscular problem, while fellow defender Borna Sosa is in doubt due to a fever. Outside of Stanisic and Sosa, Croatia is expected to be fully available.