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Edgar Chaput
Italy vs. Spain: Euro 2024 Odds, Prediction
Spain and Italy got the job done in starkly different ways in their maiden matches, but at the end of the day, they’re both sitting on three points. The Spaniards demonstrated decided superiority by downing Croatia 3-0. The Italians had to overcome a surprise deficit versus Albania to pull off a 2-1 victory. The winner of Thursday’s match – should there be a winner – would have a stranglehold on Group B.
Our Euro 2024 odds see Spain as slight favourites for this highly anticipated match. They’re +110 to Italy’s +250. A draw carries a +230 price tag.
Italy vs. Spain Betting Odds
There is history galore between these two proud footballing nations. La Roja and gli Azzurri have drawn swords no fewer than 36 times, all competitions included. As of this writing, Spain leads the all-time matchups 14-12-10 (win-draw-loss).
That being said, Italy took care of Spain the last two times they battled at Euro championships. Fans will recall the epic semi-final of the 2020 edition that required penalties after the rivals held each other in check to a 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of open play. Before that was a 2-0 win at Euro 2016. Conversely, Spain won 2-1 twice at the UEFA Nations League in 2021 and 2023.
All-time Italy is 5-1-3 in the second group stage match at European championships. By the same token, Spain sports a 3-4-3 record all-time in sophomore group stage matches and have gone undefeated in their last four (3-1-0)
Italy
A win is a win at the end of the day. Still, few supporters of the Azzurri were probably prepared for the emotions of their side’s 2-1 victory over Albania on Saturday.
Whether it was nerves or taking their opponent too lightly, the Italians got off to a horrid start. Federico Dimarco made a hash of a throw in Italy’s end which allowed the Albanians to strike through Nedim Bajrami (1st minute) with a brilliant top corner strike. But anybody thinking it would result in an upset got the bigger picture shortly thereafter because Italy is simply a better unit. They levelled terms just about 10 minutes later off a confident Alessandro Bastoni header which paid dividends for a corner kick. Nicolo Barella provided his country with the lead in the 16th minute.
From that point onward Italy controlled the match. They could have and probably should have put Albania to bed with a third marker, but at the very least three critical points were collected.
Spain
Spain vs Croatia was labelled as one of the mouth-watering fixtures of Euro 2024’s opening weekend. Loads of talent present on the pitch and two teams with high ambitions.
It was anything but a close game. In fact, it was a demonstration of what the new generation of Spanish players want to do. Gone was the endless possession in the hopes of concocting the perfect scoring opportunity. This version of Spain didn’t mind Croatia hanging on to the ball a bit more (53.3 per cent possession to 46.7 per cent), as long as the counter-attack fulfilled their needs. Alvaro Morata opened the festivities in the 29th minute after handling a brilliant pass from Fabian Ruiz up the middle. Ruiz would double the advantage in the 32nd with a shot that found its way through some traffic. Dani Carvajal, fresh off Champions League success with Real Madrid, secured the three points at 45+2 with a volley.
For the first time in a while, Spain genuinely looked dangerous, something Italy will definitely have to prepare for.
