Italy vs. England Prediction: Euro 2020 Final Betting Odds

Jordan Ramsay
July 8, 2021

After 50 matches, 140 goals and over a million combined fans in attendance, 24 teams have been whittled down to two, Italy and England, for the Final of Euro 2020 at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday. Italy’s incredible run of 33 straight matches without a loss will seem completely hollow if they don’t get that all-important 34th win. England hasn’t won a major trophy since the 1966 World Cup, coincidentally coming at the old Wembley Stadium. Do the Three Lions have what it takes to reward years of fan-suffering with a European Championship win at home, or can the Azzurri break hearts and continue one of the best streaks in international soccer history?

England opened early as a very tight +146 favourite to win on the soccer odds, with Italy at +187. A regulation draw is +212.

Italy vs. England Betting Odds

With both teams coming off tight, defensive, wins in the semifinals, it’s not surprising to see Under 2.5 goals favoured at -196. Italy is -105 on ‘draw no bet’ and England is -132. England’s Harry Kane sits tied for second in tournament goals with four and he’s a +484 favourite to get the match’s first goal and the favourite anytime scorer at +176. Oddsmakers are expecting another close match between these teams as the exact favoured score at the end of regulation is a 1-1 draw at +348.

Italy

Without a loss since September 2018, Italy has been essentially unbeatable for the last three years. The Azzurri have won a record 16 straight Euro qualifier and tournament matches and they aren’t showing any signs of slowing down. Manager Roberto Mancini has put together one of the most devastating lineups in the world. This is a dominating team that imposes their will on opponents and plays at a high intensity tempo.

Unlike some Italian teams of the past, Italy made it to this point without relying on one or two great players surrounded by average teammates. Italy is getting contributions from throughout the starting XI and the bench. It’s such a deep team, that Mancini has consistently adjusted the starting XI and it’s difficult to predict which players we’ll see at the start of the match on Sunday. After tearing his achilles in the quarterfinals against Belgium, Leonardo Spinazzola obviously won’t play in the Final. Other than Spinazzola’s injury, Italy should be fully healthy.

The only concern with this team is a recent string of defensive lapses. They’ve allowed a goal in three straight matches, which for some other teams would be a success, but the Italians know they’re a better team than that. Still, it’s a small blip in an otherwise very successful tournament. The Azzurri’s 12 tournament goals have helped this become the highest scoring Euro’s ever and they’ll be looking to build off that on Sunday.

England

It’s safe to say there was a little bit of shock when England was beaten by Denmark’s Mikkel Damsgaard in the first half of the semifinals. It was the first goal the Three Lions have given up in the tournament. It was also surprising to see that although England did win the match, they needed two very fortunate bounces to score. Simon Kjaer’s own-goal in the first half put England on the board first. It took until extra-time for the English to score again. After Raheem Sterling drew a very questionable foul, Kane failed to score on the first penalty attempt, before the rebound bounced directly in front of him for an empty-net tap-in.

England has had a very strict game plan all tournament and there’s no reason to think they’ll abandon it now. They stick mainly to set pieces and primarily focus on defence. They generally rely on counterattacks and wait to strike on opponents’ mistakes. Sterling and Kane will be responsible for the offence. The duo has combined for seven of England’s 10 tournament goals, including four in three knockout games for Kane. England should be completely healthy for the Final.

The Three Lions have only beat Italy once in the last eight head-to-heads, but there seems to be a different aura around this team. Knowing the Final was set for Wembley, fans, most of whom have never seen England win a trophy in their lifetime, have been cautiously expecting and anticipating this match. Only 90 minutes stands in the way of England’s first European Championship ever and their first major trophy in 55 years.