Germany vs. France Euro 2016 Preview and Prediction

The first semifinal of the 2016 UEFA European Championship is an interesting matchup between Portugal and Wales. But if we’re being honest, it’s really the junior varsity match compared to Thursday’s semifinal (3 p.m. ET) between Germany and host nation France at the Stade Velodrome in Marseilles. Whichever country wins that will be a solid favourite for Sunday’s final. Germany is +161 on Sports Interaction soccer odds with France at +175 and a regulation draw at +200.

Germany To Be Missing Key Players

The Germans are +160 tournament favourites. They are three-time winners of this event (1972, 1980, 1996) and three times the runners-up (1976, 1992, 2008). And of course Germany is the defending World Cup champion. It beat Ukraine and Northern Ireland in group play last month and tied with Poland. The Germans than easily handled Slovakia 3-0 in the Round of 16 with goals from Julian Draxler, Jerome Boateng and Mario Gomez. in the quarterfinals, Germany beat Italy 6-5 in penalty kicks after the sides drew at 1-1. Jonas Hector scored the winner to lead Germany past Italians for the first time in a major tournament. Italy had been 4-0-4 against Germany.

Germany Odds

Germany has three major injury concerns ahead of the semifinals. For sure out are Gomez and Sami Khedira. Gomez, who won’t play again in this tournament, was substituted in the 72nd minute of the shootout victory over Italy with a hamstring tear. Khedira left in the 16th minute versus Italy with a thigh injury. Captain Bastian Schweinsteiger is questionable with a ligament strain in his right knee. Finally, defender Mats Hummels is suspended for the match after his booking against the Italians.

France Odds

The French are priced at +180 in our soccer odds to win the tournament for a third time; they also did in 1984 and 2000. Les Bleus beat Romania and Albania in the group stage while drawing with Switzerland. In the Round of 16, France downed Ireland 2-1 on second-half goals from Antoine Griezmann. In the quarterfinals, France stopped the underdog run of little Iceland with a 5-2 victory. Griezmann scored again — he leads the tournament with four goals — and Olivier Giroud found the net twice. The French played without the suspended N’Golo Kanté and Adil Rami in that match but they are both eligible to return. France also has no injury concerns.

France has dominated the recent history between the two sides, going 6-2-1 in their nine meetings dating back to 1990. But none of those matches were in major events. France has not beaten Germany in a competitive fixture since the 1958 World Cup. They countries last played in one in the 2014 World Cup quarterfinals. Hummels scored on an early header and that goal stood up for Germany. The countries last met in a friendly on Nov. 13, 2015, a 2-0 French win in Paris. You may remember there were terrorist attacks in the city that day. Both teams slept in the Stade de France for safety reasons. Germany was advised not to return to its team hotel following the terrorist attacks and the French decided to stay with them in an act of solidarity.

Germany vs. France Prediction

The French won the 1984 European Championship on home soil and the 1998 World Cup there. Make it at treble. France wins 2-1 and then beats Portugal in the final. The French have never kept a clean sheet in their four meetings with Germany at major finals tournaments and won’t here. That exact 2-1 result is +1000 on soccer odds. That both countries score is -106.