World Cup 2026 Soccer Odds: Who Will Win The 2026 World Cup?

Payton Matthews
Last Updated: June 9, 2026

The biggest-ever World Cup of 48 countries begins with games in Mexico on Thursday and in fellow host countries Canada and the United States on Friday. None of those three countries has won the tournament and none are realistic contenders this year. But which teams are?

Check out all of our live World Cup odds.

Expanded World Cup Field, New Knockout System

With the World Cup expanding from 32 countries, which had been the case since France 1998, to 48, that means we get 104 total matches compared to 64 four years ago in Qatar when Argentina beat France on penalties in a very memorable final for the first World Cup title in Lionel Messi’s otherwise legendary career. This marks the first time three nations will host the event with the 104 matches spread across 16 cities. The final is at MetLife outside New York City on July 19.

The 48 countries are split into 12 groups of four with the top two in each group advancing to a new Round of 32 knockout stage along with the eight best third-place teams. UEFA is the only confederation to have multiple teams per group, while all other federations have no more than one team per.

Which is the proverbial “Group of Death”? Generally, one stands out per tournament as the toughest but it seems a near draw on the surface this year between Group I of France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq and Group L of England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama.

There is also a new tennis-style system in place this World Cup to ensure in theory that the highest-ranked group winners will be separated so that they can only meet in the later rounds – similar to a draw in a Grand Slam tennis tournament like the recently completed French Open or upcoming Wimbledon. The four highest-ranked countries in the world are Argentina, Spain, France and England. If all goes chalk and they win their respective groups, they would be in distinct quarters of the bracket. The group-stage draw itself remains conventional, just bigger.

World Cup History and Trends

The last World Cup repeat champion was way back in 1962 but was also from South America as it was Brazil (only other repeat winner was Italy in 1938), so that’s a one trend working for and against 2022 champion Argentina (+900), especially with superstar Lionel Messi at the tail end of his career at age 38 and a bit injury-prone these days. He always has a bulls-eye on his back and so will the Argentines as defending champions.

Thus, I don’t see them winning a fourth all-time title but should capture a Group J (along with Algeria, Austria and Jordan) priced -265, and they could finish as the top South American team at +155. Argentina was first in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying with 38 points (12 wins, two draws in 18 matches).

Portugal (+850) has won a European Championship but not a World Cup and this isn’t the year with superstar Cristiano Ronaldo having slowed way down at age 41. He is being phased out at this point by coach Roberto Martínez but seeks to become first player to score at six different World Cups.

Brazil (+900) holds the record with five World Cups – it is the only country to have played in all of them — and has an in-prime superstar in Vinicius Jr. – but finished fifth in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying. Former superstar Neymar, 34, hasn’t played for the national team since 2023 and enters with a calf injury. Italian Carlo Ancelotti is coaching his first national team, and no foreign manager for Brazil has ever won the World Cup.

Is this the year England (+700) wins its first major championship since the 1966 World Cup? Superstar striker Harry Kane enters in some of the best form of his career off a stellar domestic season with Bayern Munich. France (+475), a two-time champion and 2022 runner-up, is always a World Cup threat.

Our pick to win is favoured Spain at +450 as the defending European champion. The last time the Spanish won the Euros was in 2008 … and then they captured their most recent and only World Cup title two years later. La Roja has failed to even reach the quarterfinals since 2010 but sailed through UEFA WC qualifying competition, winning five and drawing one while outscoring foes 21-2 despite the fact that stars Rodri, Pedri, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams were injured at different stages of it.