FIFA World Cup Dark Horses and Long Shots

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is here, and with an expanded format that now features 48 teams, there has never been as many opportunities to cash in with the right dark horse and long shot bets on the World Cup futures board. Spain lead the way as +450 favourites to claim their first World Cup title since 2010, but La Roja can expect to face no shortage of challenges from soccer powers from around the world and up and down the odds board.

Here is a look at some of the dark horses and long shots to consider when making your picks on the World Cup odds and tournament futures.

Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of World Cup odds.

Tournament Winner Dark Horses

The best dark horses on the World Cup champion odds are the teams priced outside the elite tier but that still feature the talent and bracket upside to reach the final four.

Netherlands at +2000 fit that bill. The Orange have reached three World Cup finals, in 1974, 1978, and 2010, but have never won the tournament. They also finished third in 2014 and reached the quarterfinals in 2022 before losing to Argentina on penalties. This is a side with genuine tournament pedigree, but also a long history of falling just short.

At +3300, Norway has intriguing upside. Erling Haaland gives them a true Golden Boot candidate and one of the few players in the tournament capable of taking over a knockout match by himself. The concern is whether Norway are complete enough behind him.

Colombia at +4000 may be the best bet in the middle of the pack. The Cafeteros have drawn Portugal in Group K, but could still claim the top of the group as a +210 bet. Indeed, if Colombia can win the group or avoid a brutal round of 32 path, +4000 looks more interesting than a lot of shorter prices.

Mexico at +6500 and USA at +5000 cannot be ignored. The host nations may not sport the most elite talent, but being a host country matters. Mexico’s Group A opener against South will open the tournament, while the U.S. have a manageable but tricky Group D with Türkiye, Paraguay, and Australia.

To Reach the Quarterfinals

This may be the best dark horse market on the World Cup futures board since it doesn’t require backing a miracle champion, but rather a side that can survive the group stage, win a round of 32 match, and then either get a favourable round of 16 matchup.

At -110, Brazil is not a dark horse, but may be the best betting option if their path is clean. Germany and Netherlands, both pegged at +150, also look to be worth backing compared with their outright prices.

Among true dark horses, Colombia +225, , Morocco +300, Switzerland +350, Uruguay +350, Japan +350, Ecuador +450, and Senegal +600 offer the best value. These are the teams that can plausibly win two knockout matches without needing to be world-beaters.

Mexico at +280 and USA at +260 are useful host-nation options. Canada at +480 is more of an emotional pick, but the price is at least in the right neighbourhood if Group B breaks kindly.

Group Winner Bets

Group winner markets are where dark horse betting gets fun.

Colombia +200 in Group K is one of the best numbers on the board. Portugal are rightly favoured at -220, but Colombia have a realistic path to flip the group with one strong head-to-head result.

Japan +250 in Group F against the Netherlands is another live underdog. The Netherlands are the better side on paper, but Japan are exactly the type of team that can take seven points and punish a favourite’s mistakes.

Croatia +333 in Group L is classic tournament value. England are stronger, but Croatia have spent a decade making a habit of dragging better-looking teams into uncomfortable games.

Norway +275 in Group I is tempting against France. Les Bleus are clearly the deeper squad, but Norway have the best individual scorer in the group.

Beware of getting too emotional about Canada as a +200 to win Group B. Switzerland may not be exciting as -140 favourites, but that number reflects the market’s respect for structure and tournament reliability.

Top Goalscorer Long Shots

Sports bettors looking for value on the top goalscorer odds need to focus players playing big minutes and taking penalties, while facing weak group opponents on a team likely to play six or seven games. Tiebreakers matter too, with assists and minutes used if players finish level on goals.

Julian Alvarez +2500 and Lautaro Martinez +3300 are strong options if Argentina go deep, but they can eat into each other’s value. Cody Gakpo at +5000 is an intriguing option if Netherlands win Group F. Jonathan David +6600 and Raúl Jiménez +5000 are top-team-scorer types who options if Canada or Mexico ride home-region momentum.

The fun longshots are Viktor Gyökeres at +3300, Darwin Núñez at +4000, and Enner Valencia, Luis Diaz, and Christian Pulisic, all at +5000. But be careful to avoid players on teams that may play only four matches.

Best overall dark horse side: Colombia across multiple markets.

Best host-market side: Mexico to reach quarterfinals.