Best Underdogs to Bet in the World Cup Group Stage

Host country Mexico will take on South Africa in the opening game of the tournament, and the hosts are big -230 money line favourites to pick up three points against Bafana Bafana. Although I expect Mexico to win this opening game, there are multiple matches in the first round of group stage games worth looking at. Luckily for you, I’ve already combed through them and have three teams that I expect to pull off an upset when the action gets underway.

FIFA World Cup underdog best bet: Bosnia and Herzegovina (+350) vs. Canada

Mexico is the first host country with a game at this tournament, while Canada and USA kick off their tournament on Friday. Unfortunately for the Canadians, they have an extremely difficult opening contest against Bosnia. The European side qualified for this tournament by winning playoff ties against Wales and Italy, both of which ended via penalty kicks. Although this Bosnian squad can struggle to score at times, they’ll make sure this game is close. The last time they lost a match by more than a goal was in November 2024 against Germany.

Canada enters this tournament confident, but this is a terrible matchup for them to kick off the World Cup. The difficult circumstances began in October when starting CB Moïse Bombito suffered a broken leg playing for OGC Nice. He played 30 minutes in Canada’s friendly against Uzbekistan but was removed due to feeling pain in his injured leg, and he didn’t play against Ireland on June 5. To add to that, captain Alphonso Davies is dealing with a hamstring injury, and although he’s been doing light drills at practice, I don’t expect him to play against Bosnia. So, Canada will face a Bosnian squad that ranks fourth in the tournament in duels won and 14th in shots per game without two starting defenders. This game screams upset, so I’ll be nibbling on Bosnia to win.

Best Bet: Bosnia +0.5 (-105) 

Lean: Bosnia money line (+350) 

FIFA World Cup underdog prediction: Senegal (+600) vs. France

Now I’ll lean into two enormous upsets against European powerhouses, and I’ll begin with France. France enters this tournament as the joint favourite with Spain to win it all. However, I’m not sold that Didier Deschamps can lead this team to another World Cup, as he did in 2018. Although I still expect them to make the quarterfinals at a minimum, their opening match against Senegal will be extremely tight. Preparation for major tournaments is essential, and while France has their final friendly on June 8 against Northern Ireland in France, Senegal has played the USA in North Carolina and will face Saudi Arabia in Texas on June 9. This Senegalese team is acclimatized to the American heat, which could play a significant role in the opening match.

Senegal is also a quality side. They fell to the USA 3-2, but they received next to nothing from Nicolas Jackson or Iliman Ndiaye up top. Veteran winger Sadio Mane scored twice against the US, showing that the 34-year-old can still make an impact on the international stage. Finally, there is an added layer of rivalry due to the history between these countries, and I expect this Senegal squad to come out flying. France just lost a friendly to Ivory Coast 2-1, and Senegal can present similar issues. Therefore, I’ll take them to keep this game close on June 16.

Best Bet: Senegal +1 (+100)

Lean: Senegal money line (+600)

FIFA World Cup underdog prediction: Croatia (+380) vs. England

My final World Cup underdog pick for the first round of group stage games is for Croatia to take down England. This Croatian side fell in the semifinals at the 2022 World Cup, and while I don’t expect them to make a similar run this year, they can put pressure on England when this game finishes. This is a Croatian side filled with veteran leadership; Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric, and Mateo Kovacic are 40, 37, 34, and 32, but they’ve played in huge games and know what it takes to win. Add in the youth development of Josko Gvardiol and Josip Stanisic in the back, and this team is extremely hard to beat.

On the flip side, England has the fourth shortest odds to win the tournament, and I do expect them to make a deep run. However, they looked sloppy in their 1-0 friendly win over New Zealand, and Harry Kane actually went on to complain about the pitch conditions after the victory. The attack wasn’t connected, and that will be a major issue against Croatia. The last four meetings between these sides ended within a goal, so expect this one to be close. However, Croatia can pull off the upset after 90 minutes.

Best Bet: Croatia +0.5 (+105)

Lean: Croatia money line (+380)