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2026 FIFA World Cup Odds: Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe battling for Golden Boot

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Soccer’s biggest stars are shining bright on the world stage.

With Matchday 3 in full swing at the 2026 World Cup, scoring is up by an estimated 25 per cent compared to Qatar 2022, with players like Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland leading the charge.

So, who has the edge to win the Golden Boot as we enter the group stage finale? Let’s dive in.

Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of World Cup game odds, World Cup futures and World Cup specials and props.

Golden Boot favourites

Any fears that Messi, who turned 39 on Wednesday, was too old to be impactful for defending champion Argentina were quickly silenced. Messi has all five of his team’s goals (tournament lead) through two games, breaking the all-time goalscoring record in the process.

The Inter Miami superstar kicked things off with a hat-trick against Algeria before recording a brace against Austria. That brings his all-time goal tally at the World Cup to 18 and he now sits alone as a +150 favourite to win this year’s Golden Boot.

However, it’s important to keep in mind that Argentina has already clinched Group J, which means Messi may play reduced minutes against Jordan on Saturday.

Mbappe, who won the Golden Boot with eight goals in 2022, is hot on Messi’s heels at +175 to lead this year’s tournament in goals. The French superstar is second in tournament scoring with four tallies after notching braces against Senegal and Iraq.

The winner of Group I will be decided when France and Norway close out the group stage against each other on Friday, so you can expect Mbappe to play the full 90 minutes.

Golden Boot value picks

There will be another Golden Boot candidate in that Group I closer, with Haaland also sitting on four goals at his first World Cup. Haaland, +500 to win the Golden Boot, is more than capable of scoring at the pace of Messi and Mbappe, but he will likely have a shorter runway because Norway isn’t expected to go as far in the tournament as Argentina or France.

England’s Harry Kane offers great value at +700 to lead the World Cup in goals. Kane was obviously held off the scoresheet in the Three Lions’ 0-0 draw against Ghana, but he found the back of the net twice in the tournament-opener against Croatia and he should go far in the tournament as England is tied with Argentina for the third-shortest odds to win the World Cup at +600.

Canadian dark horse

Canada has already made history as a team by winning their first-ever World Cup game and reaching the knockout round for the first time, so why not keep that trend going? Jonathan David is playing +3300 to win the Golden Boot after posting a hat-trick against Qatar and Canada could be this year’s Cinderella team. If Les Rouges go on a run, David will be the one leading the way.