2026 FIFA World Cup Group I preview, betting odds, prediction

Get excited for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America this June, and check out my Group I preview and breakdown. All eyes are on Group I this year, arguably the most competitive of the 12 groups. 

The No. 1-ranked French national team finds itself as tournament front-runners alongside Spain, but they’ll have to get past the likes of Senegal, Iraq, and Norway first. Norway qualifies for the first time since 1998, while Iraq is proud to be in the World Cup for the nation’s second time in history.

Make sure to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of World Cup game odds and World Cup futures.

Group I odds

While France has one of the deepest and most talented squads, they carry -230 odds to win the group. Norway is priced at +275 to win the group, with Senegal behind at +750 to do so. Iraq is a real underdog to finish first here, priced at +5000.

France preview and analysis

The French side is set to qualify for the next round by any means at -5000 and are +4000 to finish last. This year’s roster is packed with star names, including Kylian Mbappe, William Saliba, Ousmane Dembele, Marcus Thuram, Bradley Barcola, Desire Doue, Rayan Cherki, Nogolo Kante, Aurelien Tchouameni, Michael Olise, Ibrahima Konate, Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, Lucas Hernandez, and more. Mbappe is expected to be the tournament’s highest scorer at +600.

Outside of England, Germany, Spain, Brazil, and Argentina, France is projected to win all group games at +175 odds, especially when there are so many superstar players to rotate through. The 2022 runner-ups and 2018 victors are a favourite choice to win it all at +500, and with their consistent performances over the years and the strength of their roster, there’s no doubt that they’ll make it out of Group I (+260 as runner-ups), regardless of placement.

Norway preview and analysis

Norway’s main challenge in this group is to outperform Senegal, assuming France will run away with the results, and Iraq will struggle. Norway is much more likely to qualify than Senegal at -900, so expect them to be the group’s runner-up at +110. If  6’5″ EPL Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland isn’t leading his team with goals galore, expect Alexander Sorloth to do some damage, all backed by other talents including Martin Odegard, Oscar Bobb, and Antonio Nusa.

If it weren’t for Haaland, the team wouldn’t be projected to score in every group game at -115. Norway will likely earn a considerable goal differential lead in the first match against Iraq, so defeating Senegal in the second game could put them in the clear before playing France. A +275 first-place placement isn’t out of reach, but they’d likely need to outplay France in the final game.

Senegal preview and analysis

Senegal is less fortunate to have the Group I placement, and moving forward to the next round will be challenging. Senegal is priced at -230 to qualify, with both Norway and France standing in their way. The African side features many notable top-tier names, including Sadio Mane, Ibrahim Mbaye, Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gueye, and Ismaila Sarr.

The team is plenty prepared for hefty competition after their respectable AFCON run, but the team is more than capable of a runner-up group finish at +220. Their first game is against France, which will likely set them back, so a win against Norway in the second game may be the deciding factor in their fate. 

Iraq preview and analysis

Iraq is easily the outlier in the group, but big upsets on the World Cup stage are never out of consideration. Only Saudi Arabia and Jordan rank lower than seventh-place Iraq on the AFC national team rankings for Asian teams participating in this World Cup. The Iraq squad features many domestic league players from the Iraq Stars League, as well as some from the Saudi Pro League and Qatar Stars League.

The Middle Eastern nation has the lowest odds to qualify for the next round at +450, but it’s still possible. Their runner-up odds are priced at +1100, so it’s not likely, and you can expect them to finish at the bottom of the group at -340.

2026 FIFA World Cup Group I Prediction: Iraq to Finish Bottom in Group (-340)

Of course, France finishing first, Norway finishing as runner-up, and either France or Norway scoring in every group game are all good choices. But, with Senegal still being a factor that could throw a wrench in those picks, taking the inexperienced Iraq to finish at the bottom of the group is a much safer choice.

While Middle Eastern nations have many top-flight players, they only have experience from the Saudi and Qatar leagues, with minimal to no experience from the English Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, or Ligue 1. It’s also only their second World Cup in history.

Go with Iraq to finish in last place in the group, but expect the mighty, dominant France to come out on top of the group after three games.

Best Bet: Iraq to Finish Bottom (-340)

Group Winner: France (-230)