Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers Series Prediction, Playoff Odds

After the American teams got the playoffs underway last week, it’s Canada’s turn on Wednesday, with the Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers facing off in the postseason for the first time ever.  The Oilers technically played the old Jets franchise in the playoffs before (that team is now the Arizona Coyotes), but this will be the first time Edmonton and Winnipeg have met in the postseason since the Jets’ relocation from Atlanta 10 years ago.  Who will strike first blood in what will hopefully become a long playoff rivalry?

After finishing second in the North Division, it’s not surprising to see Edmonton as -250 favourites to win the series on the NHL futures board.

Jets vs. Oilers Stanley Cup Odds

If this series goes anything like the regular season, Winnipeg could be in trouble.  The Oilers won seven of nine meetings during the season and outscored the Jets a combined 34-22.  Connor McDavid was the biggest bully to Winnipeg, putting up 22 points (7G, 15A) over the nine games.  The Over/Under split evenly at four apiece with one game ending in a push.

The Jets weren’t good against Edmonton in the regular season, losing their last six games against the Oilers.  It is worth noting, however, Winnipeg was a winning team on the road this year.  They were 17-10-1 outside of Bell MTS Place, including a 9-4 straight up record over their last 13 road games.  Winnipeg covered in 20 of 28 road games, while the total went Under in four of their last six games overall.

Edmonton has been a strong home team this year, finishing the regular season 10-4 SU over their last 14 home games.  They weren’t a great cover option at home though, going 11-17 against the spread at Rogers Place.  The Oilers hit the Over in five of their last seven games.

Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg is a dangerous team, but they fell off a cliff in April.  They were only three points back of top spot in the North on April 15, but dropped nine of their next 10 games, including a seven-game losing streak.  Mark Scheifele is going to need to be a game-breaker for the Jets.  He led the team in scoring with 63 points (21G, 42A), marking his sixth straight 20-goal season and fifth straight point-per-game season.  Scheifele is also a playoff performer.  In the 2018 Western Conference Final, Scheifele set the NHL record for most road goals in a playoff series with seven and most road goals in a single postseason with 11.

With Connor Hellebuyck in net, goaltending should be one area Winnipeg is confident in.  Last year’s Vezina winner went 24-17-3 this season with a 2.58 goals-against average, .916 save percentage and four shutouts.  Hellebuyck is a workhorse and led the NHL in minutes played (2,602:49), shots against (1,335) and saves (1,223).  He’ll be backed up by Laurent Brossoit, who was 6-6-0 with a 2.42 GAA and .918 SV.

The main thing to watch for leading up to puck drop for Game 1 and even throughout the series, is the health of Nikolaj Ehlers.  He missed the final nine games of the regular season with an upper-body injury, but he was averaging almost a point per game up to that point with 46 points (21G, 25A) in 47 games.  He’ll likely be in the lineup for Game 1, but there’s a real question mark around his health.

Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid has not slowed down one bit this season.  He’s only the ninth NHL player to ever hit the 100-point mark in 53 games or fewer and his 1.88 points per game average was the highest of his career.  McDavid is easily more important to this offence and team than any player in the NHL.  Of the 143 Edmonton goals this year, McDavid scored or assisted on 57.4 per cent of them.  Over the Oilers’ last 13 games, they scored 49 goals and McDavid had 36 points (10G, 26A), which means he was directly involved in 73.5 per cent of their goals over that stretch.  If McDavid can stay healthy throughout the playoffs, this is going to be a hard team to stop.

He may be one of the oldest current goalies in the NHL, but Mike Smith is a big reason Edmonton finished second in the North Division.  Smith turned back the clock this season, going 21-6-2 with a 2.31 GAA, .923 SV and three shutouts.  He’ll be backed up by Mikko Koskinen, who started every game for the first three weeks of the season while Smith was out with an undisclosed injury.  Koskinen was 13-13-0 with a 3.17 GAA and .899 SV.

With all of the focus on slowing down McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, look for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to be a potential X-factor.  His 35 points (16G, 19A) don’t jump off the paper at you, but he contributes in all areas of the game and he should benefit from the stronger defenders focusing on Edmonton’s top line.  Nugent-Hopkins is a dangerous shooter on the power play, he has great penalty kill numbers and his passing ability opens up a lot of space on the ice.

NHL Playoff Series Prediction: Who Will Win Jets vs. Oilers?

This has the potential to be a great series.  After a really rough ending to the regular season, Winnipeg isn’t getting the credit they deserve, as a team that has the same core of players that went to the Western Conference Final three years ago.  While this series won’t be as easy as some people think, Edmonton should still pull out the win.  Oilers will take it in six games.