Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction, Playoff Odds
It’s been over 20 years since the last playoff edition of the Battle of Ontario, but expectations remain sky-high for the Maple Leafs and Senators’ first-round playoff matchup. Toronto clinched the Atlantic Division crown with 108 points this season, while Ottawa secured the first wild-card spot to snap a seven-year playoff drought.
The Leafs are -160 favourites to win Game 1 on the NHL odds, with the total pegged at 5.5.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL Betting Odds
These teams haven’t met in the playoffs since 2004, with Toronto winning in seven games. In fact, the Maple Leafs have won all four playoff series’ between the teams.
Recent action has flipped the other way, however, as Ottawa swept this year’s season series while winning five straight in head-to-head action.
Both teams finished the season strong. Toronto is riding a seven-game home winning streak, although the Sens have won five of their last six games at Scotiabank Arena.
The Leafs are fairly sizeable -200 favourites to win the series, while Ottawa is a +165 underdog. The favoured exact series result is a Toronto win in five games (+400), while the biggest long shot is a Senators sweep (+1800).
The Maple Leafs playoff reputation is obviously on oddsmakers minds as they are +1200 (10th-shortest odds) to win the Stanley Cup on the NHL futures board despite winning the division. With the young core of Ottawa playing in the playoffs for the first time, it’s not surprising to see their Cup odds at +3500.
If you’re looking for player props, Auston Matthews and William Nylander are each +400 to lead the series in goals. Matthews has 25 goals in 35 career games against the Senators and Nylander had three goals in four playoff games last year.
Ottawa Senators
The Senators may be playing with house money after breaking a long playoff drought, but this team has a chance to do some damage. Brady Tkachuk, in particular, is built for the playoffs. Tkachuk is impactful on both ends of the ice, whether it be through his scoring touch, his physicality or his ability to be a pest. He’s scored over 30 goals in three of his last four seasons and he led Ottawa in penalty minutes (123) and hits (228) this season.
One of the most glaring differences for the Senators this season has been an upgraded crease. Linus Ullmark has finally answered the bell in net for Ottawa, posting a 2.72 goals-against average and .910 save percentage during the regular season. Ullmark is also getting hot at the right time, going 13-3-1 over his last 17 starts. In a tight series like this one, Ullmark could really make the difference for the Sens.
Toronto Maple Leafs
There’s always a lot made of Toronto’s disastrous playoff history, but when it comes down to it, their best players simply have to carry the team. That means the so-called Core Four of Matthews, Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares have to produce better than they ever have in the playoffs. Nylander (45), Tavares (38), Matthews (33) and Marner (27) accounted for 143 of the Leafs’ 267 total goals during the regular season, which is almost 70 per cent of the offence. If the Core Four don’t continue to produce at that rate, the team is in trouble.
Heading into the season, Joseph Woll was the expected No. 1, but Anthony Stolarz has overtaken Woll on the depth chart to get the Game 1 start. Stolarz has been fantastic for Toronto this season, posting career-best numbers in starts (33) and wins (21) while recording a stellar 2.14 GAA (third-best in NHL) and and league-leading .926 SV. The main concern is Stolarz has never started a playoff game in his career. Despite how well Stolarz has played, he likely has a short leash and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Woll get in the net at some point in this series.
OTT
TOR