Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction, NHL Playoff Odds
Florida dispatched Tampa Bay in a surprisingly quick five-game first round series, while Toronto received a bit of a scare after going to six games against Ottawa.
The Panthers open Game 1 as slim -125 favourites to win on the NHL odds, with the total pegged at 5.5.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs NHL Betting Odds
Florida took three of four meetings during the regular season, outscoring the Leafs 13-7 in the process. Of course, this is a second-round rematch from 2023 when the Panthers dismantled Toronto in five games.
Florida is once again a -185 favourite to win the series on the NHL futures board, with the Maple Leafs lagging as +150 underdogs. The favoured exact series result is a Panthers win in six games at +350. By far, the biggest long shot is a Toronto sweep at +2000.
Auston Matthews is favoured to be the top goal scorer in the series at +450, but there’s better value on William Nylander and Sam Reinhart, who are each +600. I lean Reinhart simply because I see Florida winning this series in five or six games (sorry, Leafs fans).
After beginning the playoffs as +750 co-favourites with Colorado to win the Stanley Cup, the Panthers enter Round 2 as +425 sole Cup favourites. The only hesitation I would have with Florida right now is Tampa Bay’s three straight Cup appearances. The Lightning just ran out of gas that third year.
Oddsmakers didn’t have much faith in Toronto at the start of the playoffs as they entered the postseason with the 10th-shortest odds to win the Cup at +1200. The Leafs still aren’t getting much respect at +750 to win the Cup, the third-longest odds of the eight remaining teams.
Florida Panthers
Florida bullied Tampa Bay in the first round and they’ll likely use the same blueprint against Toronto. The Panthers were particularly successful in shutting things down defensively in Round 1, limiting the Lighting to just 12 goals in five games, including Tampa going 2-for-18 on the power play. That’s hugely important in this series, considering Toronto’s bread and butter comes from the power play.
If you’re looking for an X-factor for Florida, look no further than Matthew Tkachuk, who will take the torch from brother Brady in an attempt to end the Leafs’ season. Thachuk returned from a 25-game absence in Game 1 against Tampa Bay and promptly scored two goals, finishing the series with five points (3G, 2A) in five games. His minutes continually increased each game as the series went on and he’s proven to be a nasty playoff player by this point in his career, just as capable of throwing a huge hit as of scoring a big goal.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto looked like they were on the verge of sweeping Ottawa before the Sens battled back with two wins of their own. The Leafs biggest challenge against Florida will be breaking through their suffocating defence. That makes Game 1 a massive opportunity for Toronto as Panthers defenceman Aaron Ekblad is serving the last of a two-game suspension. The Leafs had the third-best power play (35.3 per cent) of all 16 teams in the first round, so it starts will capitalizing on special teams.
While Toronto has a superstar duo of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner driving the top line, the gamebreaker for this series in my mind is William Nylander. Nylander was the leading scorer for the Leafs in the first round with nine points (3G, 6A) in nine games, including two goals and an assist in the Game 6 clincher. When Nylander is on his game, Toronto is a very dangerous opponent.
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