NHL Odds: Is Connor Bedard still a lock to win the Calder Trophy?

The injury-riddled Chicago Blackhawks were dealt a devastating blow with the news star rookie Connor Bedard will miss six to eight weeks with a fractured jaw. That’s a timeline that puts Bedard’s return anywhere from late February, at the earliest, to early March.

So, with Bedard set to miss roughly 18 to 25 games, is there another rookie that can overtake him in the Calder Trophy race?

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Connor Bedard Calder Trophy odds

Bedard has easily been the top rookie through the first few months of the NHL season. At the time of his injury on January 5, Bedard played 39 games and led all NHL rookies in goals (15), assists (18) and points (33). He still has nine more points than the next closest rookie and his 0.85 points per game average is significantly higher than the other top Calder contenders who are all hovering around 0.60 ppg or below. Before his injury, Bedard was playing at a 70-point pace over a full season, a total only reached by Mathew Barzal and Artemi Panarin (both Calder winners) since the start of the 2010’s.

Let’s assume the worst on the injury timeline and say Bedard doesn’t return until early March. That gives him roughly 20 regular season games to get back to his pace of just under a point per game. If Bedard returns and produces at a similar rate, he projects to finish the season with somewhere around 55 points, which should give him a good shot at leading all rookies in scoring despite playing less games. The Calder obviously isn’t just about points, but it’s worth noting that seven of the last 10 Calder winners also won the rookie scoring race.

The chart below shows the last 10 Calder Trophy winners:

* Indicates player also won the rookie scoring race

Season	Player	Team	Position	Games Played	Points	Points Per Game Average
2022-23	Matty Beniers*	Seattle Kraken	C	80	57 (24G, 33A)	0.71
2021-22	Moritz Seider	Detroit Red Wings	D	82	50 (7G, 43A)	0.61
2020-21	Kirill Kaprizov*	Minnesota Wild	LW	55	51 (27G, 24A)	0.93
2019-20	Cale Makar	Colorado Avalanche	D	57	50 (12G, 38A)	0.88
2018-19	Elias Pettersson*	Vancouver Canucks	C	71	66 (28G, 38A)	0.93
2017-18	Mathew Barzal*	New York Islanders	C	82	85 (22G, 63A)	1.04
2016-17	Auston Matthews*	Toronto Maple Leafs	C	82	69 (40G, 29A)	0.84
2015-16	Artemi Panarin*	Chicago Blackhawks	LW	80	77 (30G, 47A)	0.96
2014-15	Aaron Ekblad	Florida Panthers	D	81	39 (12G, 27A)	0.48
2013-14	Nathan MacKinnon*	Colorado Avalanche	C	82	63 (24G, 39A)	0.77

Other contenders

Luke Hughes

Position	Games Played	Points	Points Per Game Average
D	39	23 (7G, 16A)	0.59

One player’s loss is another player’s opportunity. Luke Hughes is making the most of his opportunity, with his ice time jumping up by about a minute since Dougie Hamilton’s injury. He’s playing roughly 20 minutes a night on a Devils team that is making a push for the playoffs. Hughes projects to finish around the 50-point mark as a defenceman, which makes a strong case for the two-way defender to win the Calder.

Brock Faber

Position	Games Played	Points	Points Per Game Average
D	40	20 (2G, 18A)	0.50

Brock Faber and Hughes have flip-flopped back-and-forth for the second-shortest Calder odds, so this might be a case of taking Faber while you can still get him at this price. Faber’s numbers don’t necessarily jump out at you, but you need to consider how valuable he has been for Minnesota this season. He’s playing 25 minutes a night on a Wild team dealing with several injuries and he’s thriving under the toughest matchups. This has shades of Aaron Ekblad’s 2014-15 Calder season.

Adam Fantilli

Position	Games Played	Points	Points Per Game Average
C	42	24 (11G, 13A)	0.57

Adam Fantilli is arguably the most offensively exciting rookie to watch after Bedard. He screams star potential and he should be a top player in the league for a long time. Despite his ice time fluctuating quite a bit, Fantilli is still managing to play at a 50-point pace and he only trails Johnny Gaudreau by one point for the team lead. Fantilli’s defensive game needs work, but his Calder chances probably improved the most of any rookie with Bedard on the shelf for an extended period of time.

Marco Rossi

Position	Games Played	Points	Points Per Game
C	40	24 (12G, 12A)	0.60

Give the Minnesota Wild scouts a raise because they have two rookies who have a legit shot at the Calder. Marco Rossi is tied with Fantilli for second in rookie scoring, but it’s his two-way game that separates him. He likely could have joined the big club last year if not for Minnesota’s horrendous salary cap situation, but the extra year in the AHL clearly developed him into a responsible player capable of contributing offensively while shutting things down in his own end.