NHL Odds: Connor McDavid injury shifts Hart Trophy betting odds
A terrible start to the season for the Edmonton Oilers is only getting worse as Connor McDavid is expected to miss one to two weeks as he deals with an upper-body injury. With the reigning Hart Trophy winner stuck in the press box, does that open the door for someone else this season?
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Hart Trophy Odds
| Player | Oct. 2 Odds | Oct. 25 Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | +100 | +150 |
| Jack Hughes | +1600 | +500 |
| Auston Matthews | +1100 | +650 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +1100 | +1200 |
| David Pastrnak | +2000 | +1000 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +1400 | +1400 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | +1300 | +2000 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | +2000 | +2000 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +2200 | +2000 |
| Cale Makar | +3000 | +2000 |
We’re just a few weeks into the NHL season and there’s already been some fairly significant changes in the Hart Trophy betting odds. While McDavid is still the favourite to win at +150, players like Jack Hughes and Auston Matthews have jumped significantly thanks to hot starts.
Connor McDavid
McDavid will be the front-runner for the Hart Trophy going into every season for the foreseeable future. He’s already won three Harts in his career and he’s the consensus best player on the planet. A slow start by his standard is the eight points (2G, 6A) he’s put up in five games, so he still projects to finish the year with well over 100 points. Voter fatigue is a real thing, however, so McDavid will likely need to be miles ahead of the competition again this season to win.
Rising stock
Auston Matthews
Matthews opened the season with back-to-back hat tricks and he has eight points (7G, 1A) in six games. He started the season tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon at +1100 for the third-shortest Hart odds and although he still has the third-shortest odds, the payout has dropped significantly to +650.
Matthews’ Hart argument: He’s the most lethal shooter in the NHL and he’s the best player on an elite Toronto Maple Leafs team.
Jack Hughes
Hughes has seen the biggest movement of any Hart candidate and now sports the second-shortest odds, vaulting from +1600 to +500. Through five games, Hughes is tied with Detroit’s Dylan Larkin for most points (14) and assists (10) in the NHL. He’s coming off a career-year in which he put up 43 goals (previous career-high was 26) and 99 points (previous career-high was 56).
Hughes’ Hart argument: He’s leading the NHL in points and he’s a key reason why New Jersey is once again a Stanley Cup contender.
Staying even
Leon Draisaitl
Leon Draisaitl has remained steady at +1600 to win the Hart. That value that is very attractive now considering Edmonton will rely on him to be the man even more than usual in the absence of McDavid. Draisaitl is currently fourth in the NHL scoring race with 11 points (4G, 7A) in six games. It’s also worth keeping in mind, the last time McDavid missed a notable stretch of time, the 2019-20 season, Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy with 110 points (43G, 67A) in 71 games.
Draisaitl’s Hart argument: He’s the best player in the world not named Connor McDavid.
Kirill Kaprizov
Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov’s Hart odds have remained even at +2000. With nine points (2G, 7A) in six games, he is tied for the team lead with Joel Eriksson Ek and Mats Zuccarello. Kaprizov will need to separate himself from his teammates, but don’t count him out as he has back-to-back 40-goal seasons and he’s one year removed from a 108-point campaign.
Kaprizov’s Hart arument: One of the best pure goal scorers in the world, he could drag Minnesota to the playoffs single-handedly.
Nikita Kucherov
Nikita Kucherov has remained fairly steady, moving from +2200 to +2000. Through seven games, he leads Tampa Bay in both goals (6) and points (10) and he’s starting to heat up with five points in his last two games. Kucherov’s case for the Hart will come down to him keeping the Lightning afloat until injured goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy returns to the lineup.
Kucherov’s Hart argument: He’s a top-10 offensive threat in the NHL and he’s keeping Tampa Bay alive in the absence of their No. 1 netminder.
Value picks
Matthew Tkachuk
It might be worth taking a flyer on Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk right now after he dropped from +1600 to +2000 in the Hart odds. Tkachuk and the Panthers have struggled out of the gate, but it’s still early and Tkachuk garnered a lot of support as a Hart finalist last season thanks to his offensive production and gritty style of play. He’s still searching for his first goal of the season, but he remains a point-per-game player with six assists in six games. If Tkachuk regains his scoring touch, bettors could be kicking themselves for not taking him sooner.
Tkachuk’s Hart argument: He’s one of the most diverse players in the NHL and he arguably directly impacts his team’s success more than any individual player in the league.
Cale Makar
Cale Makar’s Hart odds have improved from +3000 to +2000, but even that seems like a value play. He has nine points (3G, 6A) in six games while remaining a steady defender. Makar is playing on a juggernaut Avalanche team and a big part of that success is directly because of the 24-year-old defender.
Makar’s Hart argument: He remains an elite offensive threat while maintaining high level defensive ability.
