NHL Hart Trophy Odds and Trends: Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews making their cases to win MVP
Colorado Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon remains the consensus favourite to win the Hart Trophy, but Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Toronto’s Auston Matthews are closing the gap.
Let’s take a look at the updated Hart Trophy odds and the value of taking McDavid and Matthews.
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2023-24 Hart Trophy Odds
The Hart Trophy looks like it’s shaping up to be a four-man race down the backstretch of the season, with MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews and Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov all in the running. With a significant gap between those four players and the rest of the field, I’m putting on by best lawyer suit and arguing each players’ case to win the Hart Trophy.
Nathan MacKinnon should win the Hart Trophy because: His statistics are approaching historic levels this season.
MacKinnon is second in league scoring with 92 points (33G, 59A) which puts him on pace for a career high in both points (132) and goals (48), but it’s his production at home that has been particularly noteworthy. As of this writing, MacKinnon has a point in all 27 Colorado home games, the third-longest season-opening home point streak in NHL history. That lengthy streak has directly led to the Avalanche’s NHL-best 22-5-0 home record this season and remember, the Hart is awarded to the player deemed most valuable to his team. It’s tough to argue any player has been more valuable to their team than MacKinnon.
Nikita Kucherov should win the Hart Trophy because: He leads the NHL with 94 points (36G, 58A), which is a ridiculous 36 points more than the next Lighting player.
With significant time missed by players like goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy and defenceman Mikhail Sergachev, Tampa could have quickly fallen out of the playoff race if not for Kucherov. He is on pace for 138 points and 53 goals and if the Bolts can climb out of a wild card spot and claim one of the top three playoff positions in the Atlantic Division, he should get a lot of love from Hart Trophy voters.
Connor McDavid should win the Hart Trophy because: He’s Connor McDavid.
Kidding…sort of. No one can go on a heater like McDavid. After a slow start to the season, he currently sits third in NHL scoring with 83 points and he leads the league with 62 assists. McDavid has 24 points (5G, 19A) over his last 10 games and he has dragged Edmonton from the basement of the Western Conference to third in the Pacific Division standings with several games in-hand on Vancouver and Vegas. McDavid will be solidly in the running for the Hart if he puts up 130+ points and the Oilers win the Pacific.
Auston Matthews should win the Hart Trophy because: He’s the best goal scorer in the world and it’s not even close.
Matthews leads the NHL with 49 goals, 10 more than the next closest player, and his franchise-record six hat tricks this season is more than the goal total of 317 players who have played at least 20 games. He is averaging just under a goal per game, putting him on pace to be the NHL’s first 70-goal scorer since the 1992-93 season. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Matthews should be a lock for the Hart if he scores the most goals in a season in over 30 years.
Last 10 Hart Trophy Winners
| Year | Player | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers |
| 2022 | Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 2021 | Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers |
| 2020 | Leon Draisaitl | Edmonton Oilers |
| 2019 | Nikita Kucherov | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2018 | Taylor Hall | New Jersey Devils |
| 2017 | Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers |
| 2016 | Patrick Kane | Chicago Blackhawks |
| 2015 | Carey Price | Montreal Canadiens |
| 2014 | Sidney Crosby | Pittsburgh Penguins |
Between McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers can boast they’ve had four Hart Trophy winners in the last decade alone. Speaking of bragging rights, the Hart winner has come from a Canadian team six times since 2014, including the last four years.
Most Hart Trophies by Team
| Team | Number of Hart Trophies Won | Most Recent Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 17 | Carey Price - 2015 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 13 | Connor McDavid - 2023 |
| Boston Bruins | 12 | Joe Thornton - 2006 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 9 | Sergei Fedorov - 1994 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 7 | Patrick Kane - 2016 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 7 | Sidney Crosby - 2014 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 4 | Eric Lindros - 1995 |
| New York Rangers | 4 | Mark Messier - 1992 |
The Montreal Canadiens have an NHL-record 17 Hart Trophy winners in franchise history, but no Habs player has won since Carey Price in 2015. That record might not last long. The Edmonton Oilers have the second-most Hart winners at 13 and they could definitely add another four of five Harts over the next decade with McDavid and Draisaitl.
Teams That Have Never Had a Hart Trophy Winner
- Arizona Coyotes
- Calgary Flames
- Carolina Hurricanes
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- Dallas Stars
- Florida Panthers
- Minnesota Wild
- Nashville Predators
- Ottawa Senators
- Seattle Kraken
- Vegas Golden Knights
- Winnipeg Jets
Multiple Hart Trophy Winners
| Player | Hart Trophies Won | Years Won/Team |
|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gretzky | 9 | 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987 (Edmonton Oilers), 1989 (Los Angeles Kings) |
| Gordie Howe | 6 | 1952, 1953, 1957, 1958, 1960, 1963 (Detroit Red Wings) |
| Eddie Shore | 4 | 1933, 1935, 1936, 1938 (Boston Bruins) |
| Howie Morenz | 3 | 1928, 1931, 1932 (Montreal Canadiens) |
| Bobby Orr | 3 | 1970, 1971, 1972 (Boston Bruins) |
| Bobby Clarke | 3 | 1973, 1975, 1976 (Philadelphia Flyers) |
| Mario Lemeuix | 3 | 1988, 1993, 1996 (Pittsburgh Penguins) |
| Alex Ovechkin | 3 | 2008, 2009, 2013 (Washington Capitals) |
| Connor McDavid | 3 | 2017, 2021, 2023 (Edmonton Oilers) |
No one will touch Wayne Gretzky’s record of nine career Hart Trophy wins, but McDavid is halfway to catching Gordie Howe for second all-time. McDavid still has three Harts to win, but he’s only 27-years-old and he won’t be slowing down anytime soon.
Hart Trophy Betting Trends
- Only eight goalies have been awarded the Hart Trophy, with Carey Price (2014-15) and Jose Theodore (2001-02) the only goalies to win in the last 25 years.
- The last player to win back-to-back Hart’s is Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08 and 2008-09.
- Forwards have won the last eight Hart’s and centres have won six of the last 10.
- No defenceman has won the Hart Trophy since Chris Pronger in 1999-00.