NHL Best Bets: Unstoppable Mitch Marner, Hot Red Wings
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Edgar Chaput
Before we get into this week’s Best Bets conversation, don’t forget to check out our NHL odds page for games, player props, and NHL futures. Without further ado, let’s dive in.
Red Hot Wings
In some recent game previews that involved the Detroit Red Wings, we observed some statistics that suggested the Michigan-based ensemble wasn’t so far out of a playoff spot. Look no further than their 7-3 win-loss tally in the past 10 games, to say nothing of the fact that most of those victories were earned on a tough road swing. Now, a team most ignored during the first few months of the season sits two points out of eighth place. Can they keep it up?
Generally, Detroit is neither an especially high-scoring team (18th in goals scored per match) nor have they been stellar on defence (17th in goals conceded per outing). Until recently, that is. Since Jan. 19 against Las Vegas, the Red Wings have given up three goals or fewer in 11 of 13 contests (and three goals happened only once in those 11). They’ve also netted at least three goals in nine of those same 13 tilts. The road ahead is challenging. The Rangers and Lightning await, as do the Senators twice, a team that is also playing much better hockey lately. Dylan Larkin, the team’s leading scorer, had a seven-game point streak snapped against the Capitals lately, and he’ll have to continue being the club’s main motor. With only him capable of consistently delivering, it will be a close race, but the odds suggest “no.”
Calgary Flaming Out?
Speaking of clubs fighting for their playoff lives, what of the Calgary Flames? Darryl Sutter’s troupe is going in the opposite direction as Detroit. Their return from the All-Star break has been disappointing, with several missed opportunities at home, namely against the aforementioned Red Wings. The 5-2 win at Seattle just before their bye was a bright spot before the flame began to dim, what with a 2-5 record since then. Calgary is only four points out of eighth but isn’t playing well at all. Are the Flames burning their bridge to the playoffs?
The number one culprit for what ails them is goaltending. Not defence overall, but goaltending. One can’t fault the regular skaters and defencemen in particular if the team concedes the second-fewest total shots on goal in the NHL. When switching to the save percentage column, the Flames are the fourth worst. Ouch. Neither Jacob Markstrom nor Dan Vladar is worthy of any better’s trust, although the slightest of edges goes to the latter. The club has been conceding four goals or more against sides that don’t even have great offences (Ottawa, Detroit, Philadelphia). It’s well known that teams that don’t possess great or at least very solid goaltending don’t do well in the playoffs. It’s tough to see how Calgary even gets to the postseason if their two netminders don’t pick up the slack. The “no” is tempting.
The Unstoppable Mitch Marner
These days in Toronto there is a lot of hoopla surrounding Ryan O’Reilly. Acquiring the centre from the St. Louis Blues was deemed a big coup given his Stanley Cup-winning experience – he was an atrocious -24 for the Blues prior to getting traded. While may help in the long run, right now Mitch Marner is the life force the club feeds off. One way to be the club’s points leader with 71 in 58 games (20 goals and 51 assists) is by notching a point almost every night. While he can’t produce five-assist outings as he did against Buffalo every time, his consistency is commendable.
He’s had at least one point (typically a helper) in 14 of the last 16 games. Marner earned more than one point in seven of those same contests. There is no question Markham native means everything to the Maple Leafs. Can he keep it up? Frankly, apart from Minnesota (11th in goals against), the upcoming opposition is a list of average-to-poor defences: Seattle on Feb. 26, Edmonton on March 1, Calgary on March 2, and Vancouver on March 4. Whatever props come up that speak to Marner getting at least a point will be extremely tempting to take.
Carolina Hurricane Netminders
Rod Brind’Amour’s Carolina Hurricanes are once again among the most solid outfits in the NHL. After winning the most regular season games in franchise history last season (54), they’re flirting with that number for the second year in a row. Leaders of the Metropolitan Division, they’ve mustered 38 victories so far and there are still 26 games to go. One key ingredient to the team’s success has been goaltending.
No fewer than three goalkeepers have protected the net at times this season, all of whom have played at least 19 games. Relative newcomer Pyotr Kochetkov took care of duties throughout December and earned himself rookie of the month honours. Stalwarts Antti Raanta and Frederik Andersen are having excellent seasons as well. Raanta and Andersen sport identical 2.44 GA/G averages. Kochetkov has played to the tune of a 2.33 average. Small wonder the club is third in the NHL in goals against per game at 2.59 and is tied for the second most shutouts with five. With games against Ottawa on Feb 24, Anaheim on Feb. 25, and Arizona on March 1, the Under will be very tempting.