Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators Game 6 Prediction, NHL Playoff Odds
The whispers of Toronto’s playoff past began after their Game 4 loss and the noise is only growing after a 4-0 Ottawa win in Game 5 on Tuesday. Can the Sens push this series to the distance or will the Leafs exorcise some old playoff demons?
Ottawa opened as a slim -118 favourite to win Game 6 on the NHL odds, with the total pegged at 5.5.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators NHL Betting Odds
Let’s look at this logically. Outside of Game 1 which had many core Senators players playing their first NHL playoff game, this has been a very tight series, so would it really be surprising to see it go the distance?
Each team has a four-goal win, while the other three games all went to overtime. That sounds pretty split in my mind.
When it comes to the series line, Toronto remains a sizeable favourite at -375 to win on the NHL futures board, but Ottawa is closing the gap as a +290 underdog. That’s a significant shift from oddsmakers, who had the Leafs pegged at -1400 and the Senators at +850 on the series line prior to Game 5.
If you’re looking for a more long term play, the result of Game 5 moved Toronto’s Stanley Cup odds to +900 (from +750), with Ottawa at +8000 (from +15,000).
For any player prop fans, John Tavares remains the favourite to lead the series in goals at +200, followed by Brady Tkachuk at +220 and Matthew Knies at +260. All three players are tied with three goals each, but I like the value in Knies. The stage hasn’t proven to be too big for the pending RFA and the added incentive of playing for a contract doesn’t hurt.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto doesn’t have much time to regroup and the ghosts of their playoff past won’t help. Two almost unbelievable stats are really starting to stand out at this point. Since 2017 (AKA the Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander era), the Leafs are just 1-for-13 in potential series clinching games and they are somehow 0-for-30 on the power play in those games.
Special teams have been the big difference over the last two games. The Leafs went 0-for-4 and allowed a shorthanded goal in the Game 4 OT loss, then went 0-for-3 and allowed another shorty in the Game 5 shutout loss. You have to think the pressure is squarely on Matthews, who has just one goal in the series and only two goals in his last 15 playoff games.
There’s also a fear that Anthony Stolarz might be wearing out. Stolarz, who had never received more than 24 stats in a season before this year, is now at 38 starts between the regular season and playoffs. He has an .842 save percentage combined over the last two games after posting a .926 SV in the first three games. Stolarz simply might not be able to play so many games without a break.
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa is clearly happy after posting their first two playoff wins since 2017 to climb back into this series. Thomas Chabot and Dylan Cozens put the Sens up 2-0 in Game 5 before Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle sealed the win with empty-netters. There’s been a clear shift in discipline for Ottawa since Game 1, with the team taking less penalties and capitalizing on both power play and short-handed opportunities.
Linus Ullmark has also ben key. Ullmark made 29 saves in Game 5 for his first career postseason shutout after allowing at least three goals in each of Games 1-4. The 31-year-old is boasting a .952 SV over the last two games compared to an .815 SV between Games 1-3.
Ottawa now has their sets clearly on accomplishing something only four teams have ever done in NHL history – come back from a 3-0 deficit to win the series. The Sens would join the 1942 Leafs, 1975 Islanders, 2010 Flyers and 2014 Kings. Amazingly, all four of those teams went on to reach the Stanley Cup Final, with the Leafs, Islanders and Kings winning.
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