Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens Prediction, NHL Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated May 03, 2021

Rookie Cole Caufield continues to look more comfortable each game that goes by. He also picked a pretty decent time to score his first career NHL goal, burying the OT winner against the Sens on Saturday night.

Toronto
35-14-7
AT
May 03, 2021, 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
Montreal
24-21-8-3
Puckline -1.5 +142
Moneyline -180
Over / Under o +5.5

81%

Betting Action

19%

Puckline +1.5 -170
Moneyline +150
Over / Under u +5.5

81%

Betting Action

19%

The Leafs and Canadiens are about to see a lot more of each other over down the final stretch of the regular season and possibly into the playoffs.  These teams will kickoff a three-game set in Montreal on Monday, before shifting to Toronto for the final two games later this week.  As it stands right now, this will likely be a first round playoff preview.

Toronto is a -158 favourite to win on the NHL odds with a total of 5.5.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Betting Analysis

The Leafs have the upper-hand in this season series.  Toronto has won five of the seven games between these teams, although every games has been fairly close.  The Leafs’ 4-1 win last Wednesday is the only game in this series to be decided by more than two goals.

No other Canadian team seems to have an answer for Toronto this year.  The Leafs have won five straight games overall and have eight wins in their last 11 road games.  They’re 20-31 against the spread and they’ve covered in half of their last 10 games.  The over-under is split evenly in the season series against Montreal.

Montreal hasn’t exactly been dominant at home this season, as they’re just one game above .500 at the Bell Centre.  They’re 21-29 ATS overall and they’ve only covered in eight of 25 home games.  The total has gone under in five of the Habs’ last six home games.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs have all but locked up top spot in the North Division with just a couple weeks left of the regular season.  With a nine-point lead over Edmonton and four of their final five games coming against Montreal or Ottawa, there’s no reason to think Toronto won’t win the North crown.  The Leafs are the highest scoring team in the division, while allowing the second-fewest goals.  Auston Matthews‘ two goals on Saturday helped Toronto to a 5-1 win over Vancouver.  Matthews now leads the NHL with 38 goals on the year, nine more than the next closest player.

Jack Campbell should get the start in this game, after stopping 26 of 27 shots on Saturday.  Campbell came into the year as a backup goalie, but his play in Frederik Andersen‘s absence has been good enough to create a bit of a goalie controversy.  Campbell is 10-2 with a 1.82 goals-against average on the road this year.  He’s played just as good against Montreal, going 2-1 against the Habs this year, with a 2.03 GAA.  Andersen looks like he’s getting closer to returning, although he lost his last three starts and hasn’t played since March 19.  Even if Andersen is healthy come playoff time, Campbell might have just stolen his crease.

Montreal Canadiens

There’s nothing clinched yet, but it still looks like Montreal is playoff-bound.  The Habs have an eight-point lead over Calgary for the final playoff spot in the North and they come into Monday with two straight wins.  Tyler Toffoli and Nick Suzuki have been leading the charge as the season winds down.  Toffoli is fourth in the NHL with 27 goals, including six in his last seven games.  Suzuki has also looked strong lately, chipping in seven points (4G, 3A) over his last five games.  They’re even getting some offence from rookie Cole Caulfield, whose first NHL goal just happened to be the OT winner in Montreal’s 3-2 win over Ottawa on Saturday.

Cayden Primeau made 21 saves to pick up the win against the Sens in just his second start of the year.  With Carey Price still sidelined with a concussion, it should be Jake Allen that gets the start on Monday.  Allen is 10-10-4 this year with a 2.58 GAA.  He’s 1-2 against the Leafs this year with a 3.04 GAA.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens?

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