Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction, Playoff Odds
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens will meet in the playoffs for the first time since 1979. After losing in last year’s qualifying round, there’s a lot of pressure for Toronto to take a step forward and make a serious run in the playoffs. The Habs, on the other hand, may have squeaked into the playoffs, but Montreal always seems to find a way to perform come playoff time.
The Leafs are -208 favourites on the NHL odds to win Game 1, with the total at 5.5.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Odds
Toronto took seven of 10 meetings between these teams in the regular season. Auston Matthews was the biggest producer for the Leafs, scoring 14 points (7G, 7A) in the season series. Jeff Petry led the way for Montreal with 10 points (all assists). Only two games were decided by more than two goals and the total went Under in six games, including the last two.
Montreal staved off a late season surge by Calgary in the standings, although the Habs seemed to do everything they could to help the Flames. The Canadiens are coming into Game 1 on a five-game losing streak overall and they’ve dropped five of their last six on the road. They were 24-32 against the spread in the regular season, including an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. The Habs have hit the Over in four of their last five games.
The Leafs have been dominant against Montreal over the last couple of seasons, winning eight of their last 10 home games against the Habs. They finished the regular season 21-35 ATS, including covering in three of their last four home games.
Montreal Canadiens
It’s been a bit of a weird year for Montreal. After starting the season 7-1-2, reality hit and they went 17-20-9 the rest of the way. They finished in the bottom half of the league in average goals scored (2.82) and goals allowed (2.95) with the league average at 2.93. The Habs weren’t any better on special teams. They were 18th on the power play, converting 19.2 per cent of the time, and they were 22nd on the penalty kill, with a success rate of 78.5 per cent.
Cole Caufield picked up his fourth goal of the year in the regular season finale, a 3-2 OT loss to Edmonton, but you won’t see the rookie in Game 1 as he’ll start the series as a healthy scratch. It’s tough not to see him drawing into the lineup at some point though, especially if Montreal loses the first couple of games. On the injury side, the Habs will get back Carey Price, Shea Weber, Brendan Gallagher and Phillip Danault back for Game 1. All of those players were hurt down the final stretch of the season, so it’s worth noting that they’re likely still dealing with injuries and playing through the pain. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the series.
Price is expected to get the start in net for Game 1. He hasn’t played a game since April 19 because of a concussion. Price was 12-7-5 with a 2.68 goals-against average and .901 save percentage this year. He didn’t have a great record against Toronto, going 1-2-1 with a 3.48 GAA and .868 save percentage.
Toronto Maple Leafs
There’s a lot of expectations in Toronto after the Leafs captured their first division title since the 1999-2000 season. They haven’t won a playoff series since 2004 and with two of the top-five highest scoring players in the NHL, anything short of a Stanley Cup is a failure. Matthews was fifth in league scoring with 66 points (41G, 25A), while Marner was fourth with 67 points (20G, 47A). Matthews also led the NHL in goals.
A surprise X-factor to watch out for, could actually be a player who has never suited up for the Leafs yet. It looks like Riley Nash will slot in as the third line centre for Game 1. Nash, who was picked up from Columbus at the trade deadline, has yet to make the Toronto lineup because of a sprained knee. The 10-year NHL vet will centre Alex Kerfoot and Ilya Mikheyev on a third line that could fly under the radar and get some favourable matchups.
The big issue for Game 1, however, is the goaltending situation. Jack Campbell will get the start, despite No. 1 Frederik Andersen being deemed healthy and fit. Campbell had a breakout year, going 17-3-2 with a 2.15 GAA and .921 SV. Andersen has only played one game since March 19 and didn’t look good, even before a knee injury sidelined him for most of the last two months. He finished with a 13-8-3 record and posted a 2.96 GAA and .895 SV. This could turn into a tricky situation for Toronto. If Campbell holds down the fort and plays well, that’s great. But, if Campbell struggles early, how long is his leash? And how comfortable would the Leafs be if they had to rely on Andersen, who hasn’t seen full game action in two months?
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