2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conn Smythe Trophy Odds, Prediction

We are two rounds into the Stanley Cup playoffs with two rounds to go, so it’s time for a Sports Interaction update on your Conn Smythe favourites.  From Edmonton’s two-headed monster of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to Tampa Bay’s brick wall in net, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Sports Interaction is looking at the top Conn Smythe candidates for the four remaining teams.

Here’s a look at the field as we enter Round 3.  Make sure to check out all of Sports Interaction’s NHL game odds, NHL futures and NHL props.

Colorado Avalanche

Nathan MacKinnon

MacKinnon hasn’t blown away the stats sheet by any means, but he’s the Conn Smythe favourite after two rounds for a reason.  He is tied for the team lead with 13 points (8G, 5A) and he also leads all skaters in the playoffs with 55 shots on net despite playing fewer games than Edmonton’s McDavid, Draisaitl and Evander Kane as well as Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos.

MacKinnon had five goals in four games against Nashville in the first-round and his hat trick performance in Game 5 of the second-round against St. Louis was capped off by one of the best playoff goals in NHL history.  He is also heavily controlling possession and ranks first in expected goals among skaters who have played at least 150 minutes of five-on-five.

Cale Makar

Makar (3G, 10A) is the other team leader in points for Colorado and was actually the Conn Smythe favourite after the first-round.  His 10 points against Nashville were the most by a defenceman through the first four games of the postseason in NHL history.  The Norris Trophy finalist’s offensive production dipped a bit against St. Louis, but he’s still the second-favourite to win.

Makar averaged over 27 minutes of ice time per game in six contests against the Blues, including 28:03 over the final four games.  Like MacKinnon, Makar has helped Colorado dominate the possession game.  With Makar on the ice at five-on-five, the Avalanche are generating over two-thirds of the scoring chances in the game.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Vasilevskiy is the third-favourite for the Conn Smythe entering the conference finals.  Last year’s Conn Smythe winner didn’t have a spectacular first six games against Toronto in the opening round, but he’s shut the door since then.  After clinching a Game 7 victory against the Maple Leafs with 30 saves, Vasilevskiy allowed just three total goals in the second-round against the Presidents Trophy-winning Florida Panthers.  He had a 49-save shutout in the series-clinching game against Florida and stopped the last 88 shots he faced in the series.  Vasilevskiy is an absolutely clutch player and has an NHL-record six straight shutouts in series clinching wins.

Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid

If the Conn Smythe was handed out today, McDavid is the clear winner in my mind.  With respect to players like MacKinnon and Vasilevskiy, no one has been more important to their team than Edmonton’s captain.  Trailing 3-2 in the first-round series against L.A., McDavid was on the ice for all six goals the Oilers scored in Game’s 6 and 7, tallying two goals and three assists.  For the series he was on the ice for 19 of 27 goals.

McDavid was just as dominant in the second-round against Calagary and scored the series-clinching goal in overtime.  He’s tied for the playoff lead in points with 26 (7G, 19A), but it’s his defensive side that is pushing him over the edge.  Among all forwards, McDavid is fifth in takeaways with 13 and he sits tied for 11th in hits with 39.  That’s a massive defensive contribution from a player who is also dominating offensively.

Leon Draisaitl

Boasting an identical stat line of seven goals and 19 assists, Draisaitl is also still very much in the Conn Smythe conversation.  The German sniper put up video game numbers in five games against Calgary, recording a ridiculous 17 points in the series, despite suffering a suspected high ankle sprain in Game 6 of the first-round.  He tied the record for most points through five games of a series and his 15 assists is a single-series NHL playoff record.

Draisaitl has recorded at least three points in five straight games and will match the all-time mark held by Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr and Jari Kurri if he does it again in Game 1 against Colorado.

New York Rangers

Igor Shesterkin

Just like the regular season, New York owes a lot of its success in the playoffs to Shesterkin.  The 26-year-old, who is all but guaranteed to win the Vezina Trophy, has seen the most ice time of any goalie in these playoffs and leads all netminders in goals saved above expected at five-on-five.

In seven games against Carolina in the second-round, Shesterkin allowed just 12 goals on 234 shots for a .949 save percentage.  He’s also faced 100 more shots than the next closest goalie in the playoffs.  Among all goalies in the first two rounds, Shesterkin has the second-best save percentage (.928) and fourth-best goals-against average (2.68).

Conn Smythe Prediction

I’ll preface this prediction with one major factor in mind.  Only five players have won the Conn Smythe without winning the Stanley Cup and it hasn’t happened since J.S. Giguere won in 2003, so I’m factoring in what team I think has the best chance to win the Stanley Cup this year for my prediction.

It was tempting to take a Tampa player, but I’m betting against a Stanley Cup three-peat this year.  Colorado has never had a better chance to win and I’m banking on an Avalanche player to take home the award.  MacKinnon and Makar are the early favourites, but players like Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri and Darcy Kuemepr could still work their way into the conversation.

That being said, I like MacKinnon to take home the hardware.  No one was more vocal and determined after last year’s second-round playoff exit than MacKinnon and the Nova Scotia native just hits another level in the playoffs.  MacKinnon’s playoff pace would give most NHL teams a chance to win the Stanley Cup, so I’m banking on Big Mack for the Conn Smythe.